Confirmed previous forecast
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Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
5
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 3 | 7 | 5 | 21 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 13 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 8 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 13, 2025 to Sep 13, 2025
90%
(0%)
No
Mar 13, 2025 to Sep 13, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(0%)
Yes
20%
(0%)
No
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2025 12:38AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(0%)
Yes
Jan 28, 2025 to Jul 28, 2025
90%
(0%)
No
Jan 28, 2025 to Jul 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
80%
(+5%)
Yes
20%
(-5%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
In light of the Trump election and recent action by the administration, China may look to continue to assert its dominance in places away from its borders, where the US may not be paying as close attention.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Xi Jinping could die, triggering policy changes of some kind.
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 3, 2024 01:39AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Oct 3, 2024 to Apr 3, 2025
90%
No
Oct 3, 2024 to Apr 3, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Xi is seeing what's going on in Russia and Ukraine at the moment, as well as AUKUS buildup in the Pacific. Even with its inside political stirrings, the CCP knows that the US will most likely act in some regard, either for democracy, semiconductors, something else, or some combination.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Xi and others may try to take advantage of whatever political chaos may ensue post election. The recent ICBM launching into the wider Pacific may be a bad omen of things to come.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
The US under Trump will find some way to coerce Ukraine to end the war on terms favorable to Russia.
Why might you be wrong?
Or maybe the international community will somehow pull more weight than the combined forces of US and Russia diplomatically.