nromero

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Relative Brier Score
1383000.511.522.53
Questions Forecasted

5

Forecasts

1

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
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Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 3 3 7 5 21
Comments 1 1 4 2 13
Questions Forecasted 3 3 3 3 8
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 1 1 1
 Definitions
New Prediction
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New Prediction
nromero
made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10% (0%)
Yes
Mar 13, 2025 to Sep 13, 2025
90% (0%)
No
Mar 13, 2025 to Sep 13, 2025
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nromero
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New Prediction
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New Prediction
nromero
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Feb 28, 2025 12:38AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10% (0%)
Yes
Jan 28, 2025 to Jul 28, 2025
90% (0%)
No
Jan 28, 2025 to Jul 28, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Badge
nromero
earned a new badge:

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New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?

In light of the Trump election and recent action by the administration, China may look to continue to assert its dominance in places away from its borders, where the US may not be paying as close attention.

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Why might you be wrong?

Xi Jinping could die, triggering policy changes of some kind.

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nromero
earned a new badge:

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New Prediction
nromero
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 3, 2024 01:39AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
Yes
Oct 3, 2024 to Apr 3, 2025
90%
No
Oct 3, 2024 to Apr 3, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Xi is seeing what's going on in Russia and Ukraine at the moment, as well as AUKUS buildup in the Pacific. Even with its inside political stirrings, the CCP knows that the US will most likely act in some regard, either for democracy, semiconductors, something else, or some combination.
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Why might you be wrong?

Xi and others may try to take advantage of whatever political chaos may ensue post election. The recent ICBM launching into the wider Pacific may be a bad omen of things to come.

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