2nd
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o-maverick

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Oct 26, 2024 03:29AM UTC Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or offensive missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between May 10, 2024 and Oct 26, 2024) -0.699063
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) -0.343451
Sep 30, 2024 11:02PM UTC Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 14, 2024 and Sep 30, 2024) -0.26259
Aug 02, 2024 05:29AM UTC Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025? -0.038672
Jul 18, 2024 04:00AM UTC For each of the 5 quarters listed, what is the probability that North America’s share of TSMC’s net revenue will be less than 40%? 0.001512
Jul 01, 2024 04:01PM UTC Will Australia issue a Level 3 or Level 4 travel advisory for Taiwan before 1 July 2024? 0.004855
Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024? 0.000084
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024? -0.000385
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many fatalities due to gang violence will ACLED record in El Salvador? 0.140468
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia? 0.13136
Jun 25, 2024 04:00PM UTC From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many battles and incidents of violence against civilians will ACLED record in Venezuela? 0.134434
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024? -0.054414
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI? -0.393467
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024? -0.003681
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024? 0.031691
Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM UTC Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024) -0.472025
Apr 13, 2024 09:41PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles targeting Israel or conduct an airstrike in Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 1, 2023 and Apr 13, 2024) -0.377688
Apr 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 6, 2024 and Apr 6, 2024) -0.000087
Apr 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Mar 6, 2024 and Apr 6, 2024) 0.014758
Apr 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 2, 2024 and Apr 2, 2024) -0.00063
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