RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

You quit this question on Jul 31, 2024 02:00AM and have no active forecasts. You won't receive scores for days you quit unless you make a new forecast.

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2024 02:07AM UTC
(5 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	80%	9%	+71%	-66%
No	20%	91%	-71%	+66%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2024 09:25PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	25%	Oct 4, 2024 to Oct 4, 2025	Jan 4, 2025	13%	+12%	+5%
No	75%	Oct 4, 2024 to Oct 4, 2025	Jan 4, 2025	87%	-12%	-5%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2024 09:28PM UTC
(2 months ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	55%	Oct 4, 2024 to Oct 4, 2025	Jan 4, 2025	22%	+33%	-2%
No	45%	Oct 4, 2024 to Oct 4, 2025	Jan 4, 2025	78%	-33%	+2%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 02:09AM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	34%	19%	+15%	+1%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	51%	72%	-21%	+0%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	13%	8%	+5%	-1%
More than or equal to 40%	1%	0%	+1%	+0%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 02:34AM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	1%	1%	+0%	+1%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	21%	13%	+8%	+1%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	51%	50%	+1%	-4%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	20%	33%	-13%	+2%
More than or equal to 80	7%	2%	+5%	+0%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 03:05AM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Argentina	2%	16%	-14%	-5%
Bolivia	10%	22%	-12%	-4%
Ecuador	15%	12%	+3%	-3%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 03:44AM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	51%	Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	24%	+27%	-8%
No	49%	Oct 31, 2024 to Oct 31, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	76%	-27%	+8%

Will North Korea engage in kinetic military action against a South Korean vessel, island, or other asset south of the Northern Limit Line in the Yellow Sea in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 04:21PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	10%	-5%	-1%
No	95%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	90%	+5%	+1%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 04:58PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	12%	-7%	-9%
No	95%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	88%	+7%	+9%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 05:18PM UTC
(22 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2026	Jan 31, 2025	12%	-11%	+8%
No	99%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2026	Jan 31, 2025	88%	+11%	-8%

o-maverick

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