RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will 50 or more fatalities be attributed to one or more non-state armed groups with Salafi jihadi ideology in India?	-0.000017
Aug 28, 2023 05:09PM UTC	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022)?	-0.031983
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022?	0.129253
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?	-0.159842
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?	0.019555
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022?	-0.039159
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022?	0.121262
Aug 22, 2023 09:00AM UTC	Will Prayut Chan-o-cha be re-elected as prime minister of Thailand by the Thai parliament after the next election and before 1 Jan 2024?	0.019683
Aug 21, 2023 09:00PM UTC	Will GenScript’s Industrial Synthetic Biology segment report an operating profit in the first half of 2023?	0.002279
Aug 21, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will the UCDP Georeferenced Event Dataset attribute 500 or more fatalities to the Iran - Israel conflict?	-0.000003
Aug 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jul 20, 2023 and Aug 20, 2023)	0.004968
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC	Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?	-0.004027
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 and 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 100 or more protest and riot-related fatalities in Brazil?	-0.128319
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank?	-0.000014
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record at least 50 protests or riots or at least 10 protest- or riot-related fatalities in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province?	0.0
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more civilian fatalities in Ethiopia?	-0.000251
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya?	0.0
Jul 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 20, 2023 and Jul 20, 2023)	0.0048
Jul 11, 2023 01:00PM UTC	Will Sweden become a full member of NATO before the NATO Summit in July 2023?	0.417758
Jul 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will the composition of Israel's current governing coalition change before 1 July 2023?	0.00072

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