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Forecasted Questions
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Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 27, 2024 08:57PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 9% 22%
No 91% 78%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 27, 2024 08:58PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 5%
No 96% 95%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 27, 2024 08:59PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 2%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 0% 3%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 27, 2024 09:00PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 27, 2024 09:01PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 27, 2024 09:04PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 27, 2024 09:05PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 Dec 27, 2024 0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 27, 2024 09:06PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 100% 98%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 27, 2024 09:07PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 0%
No 99% 100%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Sep 27, 2024 09:09PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 1% Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 Oct 27, 2024 1%
No 99% Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025 Oct 27, 2024 99%
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