29th
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olavo_sg

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Forecasted Questions
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By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 20, 2024 11:07PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 5%
No 98% 95%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 20, 2024 11:08PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 1%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 0% 2%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 20, 2024 11:10PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 20, 2024 11:10PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 20, 2024 11:13PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 20, 2024 11:14PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 20, 2024 to Apr 20, 2025 Jan 20, 2025 0%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 20, 2024 11:16PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 0% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 100% 99%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 20, 2024 11:26PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 99% 97%
No 1% 3%

Will the Latin American governments listed (Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador) cease to service their external debt and enter into default before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 21, 2024 05:07AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Argentina 9% 16%
Bolivia 9% 22%
Ecuador 4% 12%

How many German-language disinformation cases originating in pro-Kremlin media will there be between 1 October 2024 and 30 September 2025?

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 02:07AM UTC
(23 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 59 30% 1%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive 29% 8%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive 18% 27%
Between 80 and 89, inclusive 13% 37%
More than or equal to 90 10% 27%
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