olavo_sg

There seems to be a reasonable chance that Russia might deploy African Corps in Togo.

They are already present in Burkina Faso, which borders Togo, facilitating an "expansion" into the country.

Moreover, the African Corps (or Wagner Group) have proven particularly effective in mineral exploitation for Russia in Africa. In this regard, it is worth noting that the most exploited resource in Togo is phosphate, with its largest reserves located less than 40 km from the Port of Lomé—a deep-water port and one of Africa's major transportation and distribution hubs. Russia, being one of the world's leading producers of phosphate-based fertilizers, has significant phosphate reserves but may find extraction in Togo more profitable due to lower labor costs.

However, the resolution timeframe for this issue appears very short; therefore, I will start with a 30% probability for Togo. For the other countries, I will start with a 40% probability (more countries, more chances). And @belikewater has shown that Wagner Group is supposedly recruiting troops for Guinea Equatorial. 

NVIDIA is more dependent on China in terms of revenue than Apple. This is reflected in the sharper decline it has experienced due to export controls and tariff increases imposed by Trump. Over the past month, Apple’s stock has dropped by -9.22%, while NVIDIA’s has fallen by -12.58%. In the last six months, Apple’s stock is down -16.18%, whereas NVIDIA’s is down -23.01%. In other words, all signs suggest that NVIDIA is being hit harder—and will likely continue to be hit harder—by the current geopolitical shocks than Apple. For this reason, it seems highly unlikely to me that NVIDIA will surpass Apple in market cap within the next 45 days.

There are no signs of this happening and there are just 6 months ahead. Moreover, I think that the rising geopolitical tensions between the West and China will prevent a deeper collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN alliance.  

A dual-use facility seems very possible in the context of the Belt and Road Initiative, but I will start with 30% due to the short timeframe. 

Little change considering the count so far 

From the last The Economist:
"Instead of an unconditional ceasefire, Mr Putin proposed only that both sides stop striking each other’s energy infrastructure, an area where Ukraine has been landing some weighty blows on the invader. For anything further to happen, says the Russian government, Ukraine must accept a freeze on foreign military aid and an end to conscription and training, although Russia proposes no such restrictions on itself. Mr Putin also wants a solution to the “root causes” of the conflict, by which he really means an end to the existence of Ukraine as an independent country. Those are not the words of a man who is eager to compromise."

As one can see, Putin's offer is very unfair for Ukraine and Putin is not touched with equity arguments. Therefore, Russia and Ukraine seem far away from a ceasefire agreement. 

I have very little technical knowledge on the subject. I am grateful to @DimaKlenchin  for the technical explanations published here and also to @o-maverick  for offering nice considerations and another view.

My impression is that a pathogen leak is already unlikely. Generating a pandemic from such a leak is even more unlikely. And having statements from two of these organizations is even more improbable, also for diplomatic and geopolitical reasons.

Therefore, I estimate the probability of the event at 4%.