Forecasted Questions
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:32PM UTC
(1 hour ago)
Sep 30, 2024 08:32PM UTC
(1 hour ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 0% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 100% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:36PM UTC
(1 hour ago)
Sep 30, 2024 08:36PM UTC
(1 hour ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 6% | +6% | +0% |
| No | 88% | Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025 | Oct 30, 2024 | 94% | -6% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 08:59PM UTC
(26 minutes ago)
Sep 30, 2024 08:59PM UTC
(26 minutes ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 4% | 4% | +0% | +0% |
| Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Odesa | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:12PM UTC
(13 minutes ago)
Sep 30, 2024 09:12PM UTC
(13 minutes ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 99% | 96% | +3% | +0% |
| No | 1% | 4% | -3% | +0% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 30, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(4 minutes ago)
Sep 30, 2024 09:21PM UTC
(4 minutes ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 3% | 9% | -6% | +0% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 5% | 7% | -2% | 0% |