RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will Egypt experience an economic collapse (as defined by any of the listed scenarios) in the next 12 months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 02:27AM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	5%	5%	+0%	-4%
No	95%	95%	+0%	+4%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 02:35AM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 9%	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive	13%	19%	-6%	+1%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive	70%	72%	-2%	+1%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive	13%	8%	+5%	-1%
More than or equal to 40%	3%	0%	+3%	+0%

Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(8 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 02:38AM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana	1%	3%	-2%	+0%
Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells	2%	5%	-3%	+0%
Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo	2%	1%	+1%	+0%
Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo	0%	1%	-1%	+0%

What will be the risk index score for the perceived threat posed by Russia to Germany in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 02:44AM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Less than or equal to 49	1%	1%	+0%	+0%
Between 50 and 59, inclusive	29%	13%	+16%	+0%
Between 60 and 69, inclusive	60%	51%	+9%	-3%
Between 70 and 79, inclusive	9%	34%	-25%	+3%
More than or equal to 80	1%	2%	-1%	+0%

In the next 18 months, will a Russian government cyber attack occur against energy or transportation infrastructure within a NATO country that produces a kinetic effect, causing physical damage or human casualties?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 02:51AM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	4%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2026	Jan 31, 2025	12%	-8%	+8%
No	96%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2026	Jan 31, 2025	88%	+8%	-8%

Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 31, 2024 02:54AM UTC
(23 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	1%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	0%	+1%	+0%
No	99%	Oct 31, 2024 to Apr 30, 2025	Nov 30, 2024	100%	-1%	+0%

Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 07:31PM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	19%	Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025	Dec 2, 2024	12%	+7%	-7%
No	81%	Nov 2, 2024 to May 2, 2025	Dec 2, 2024	88%	-7%	+7%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 02, 2024 07:55PM UTC
(20 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	15%	7%	+8%	+0%
Armenia	0%	2%	-2%	+0%
Georgia	4%	4%	+0%	+0%
Kazakhstan	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 11, 2024 02:23AM UTC
(12 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	5%	3%	+2%	-1%
Kyiv	0%	1%	-1%	+0%
Odesa	0%	2%	-2%	+0%

In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 18, 2024 01:24AM UTC
(5 days ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	20%	Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	24%	-4%	+0%
No	80%	Nov 18, 2024 to Nov 18, 2025	Dec 18, 2024	76%	+4%	+0%

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