Forecasted Questions
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 26, 2024 07:56PM UTC
(4 months ago)
May 26, 2024 07:56PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Estonia | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
| Latvia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Lithuania | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 26, 2024 08:01PM UTC
(4 months ago)
May 26, 2024 08:01PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moldova | 23% | 7% | +16% | -8% |
| Armenia | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
| Georgia | 11% | 3% | +8% | -4% |
| Kazakhstan | 0% | 1% | -1% | -1% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
May 26, 2024 08:04PM UTC
(4 months ago)
May 26, 2024 08:04PM UTC
(4 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kharkiv | 28% | 4% | +24% | -46% |
| Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | -2% |
| Odesa | 0% | 1% | -1% | -2% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2024 02:05AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jul 01, 2024 02:05AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 26% | 25% | +1% | -7% |
| No | 74% | 75% | -1% | +7% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2024 02:36AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jul 01, 2024 02:36AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 4% | Jul 1, 2024 to Jan 1, 2025 | Oct 1, 2024 | 3% | +1% | -3% |
| No | 96% | Jul 1, 2024 to Jan 1, 2025 | Oct 1, 2024 | 97% | -1% | +3% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2024 02:41AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jul 01, 2024 02:41AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | Jul 1, 2024 to Jul 1, 2025 | Oct 1, 2024 | 5% | -2% | +0% |
| No | 97% | Jul 1, 2024 to Jul 1, 2025 | Oct 1, 2024 | 95% | +2% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2024 02:45AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jul 01, 2024 02:45AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 2% | -1% | -2% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +1% | +2% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 01, 2024 03:40AM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jul 01, 2024 03:40AM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S-400 or S-500 missile system | 3% | 9% | -6% | +3% |
| Su-35 fighter jets | 5% | 7% | -2% | -2% |
Which of the following territorial developments between Venezuela and Guyana will occur before 1 August 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Aug 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 01, 2024 02:27AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 01, 2024 02:27AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Venezuela conducts a ground invasion of Guyana | 3% | 3% | +0% | -1% |
| Venezuela attacks offshore Guyanese oil wells | 2% | 4% | -2% | +1% |
| Venezuela relinquishes its claim on Essequibo | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| Guyana agrees to cede some or all of Essequibo | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 01, 2024 02:30AM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 01, 2024 02:30AM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
| No | 99% | 99% | +0% | +0% |