29th
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olavo_sg

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM UTC Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation? -0.417253
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023? -0.000042
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more civilian fatalities in India? -0.000288
Jan 16, 2024 07:32PM UTC From 1 September 2022 to 31 August 2023, will ACLED record 800 or more civilian fatalities in El Salvador? 0.003404
Jan 06, 2024 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2023 and Jan 6, 2024) -0.000271
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023? -0.000552
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023? -0.042799
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023? -0.026841
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM UTC What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023? -0.097852
Dec 22, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Sep 22, 2023 and Dec 22, 2023) -0.000119
Dec 06, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Nov 6, 2023 and Dec 6, 2023) -0.000707
Nov 22, 2023 01:45PM UTC Will Israel and Hamas agree to a ceasefire in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 12, 2023 and Nov 22, 2023) -0.278741
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023? 0.115145
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive? -0.029937
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025? -0.061555
Sep 18, 2023 04:01AM UTC Of the following companies, which will start volume production on a 3nm chip or smaller before 17 September 2023? 0.240621
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM UTC Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024? -0.05916
Sep 10, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will Egypt’s urban inflation rate be greater than or equal to 40% for any month between March and August 2023, inclusive? -0.214581
Sep 01, 2023 09:00PM UTC How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023? -0.003214
Sep 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Will an AI-generated film or episode be released by Netflix, Hulu, Disney+, Max, Apple TV+, or Amazon Prime before 1 September 2023? 0.000682
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