RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Nov 16, 2021 01:34PM UTC	What will the trade-to-GDP ratio for all OECD member countries be in the first two quarters of 2021?	-0.021488
Nov 16, 2021 12:53PM UTC	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2021 (October 1, 2020 to September 30, 2021)?	-0.032087
Jul 01, 2021 05:30PM UTC	Will the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied features in the South China Sea before July 1, 2021?	-0.000377
Apr 10, 2021 03:56AM UTC	How many times will the Japanese Air Force respond to threats to Japan's territorial airspace by Chinese military aircraft between April 1, 2020 and March 31, 2021, inclusive?	-0.004361
Mar 07, 2021 09:22PM UTC	What percentage of U.S. residents will have an unfavorable view of China, as reflected in the 2021 Pew Global Attitudes Survey?	-0.014985
Feb 18, 2021 03:07PM UTC	What will be the opening price of GameStop stock on Tuesday, February 16?	0.156515

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