Increasing again due to (i) time decay and (ii) no signs that the previous protests will lead to his fall.
0.14153
Relative Brier Score
36
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 15 | 15 | 161 | 129 | 393 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 6 | 5 | 39 |
Questions Forecasted | 15 | 15 | 51 | 43 | 128 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 15 | 11 | 34 |
Definitions |
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
99%
(+21%)
Yes
1%
(-21%)
No
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(-24%)
Kharkiv
0%
(0%)
Kyiv
0%
(0%)
Odesa
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12%
(-8%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
88%
(+8%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
100%
(0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Passage of time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Confirmed previous forecast. Russia will need the weapons in Ukraine.