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54th
Accuracy Rank

olavo_sg

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2022 Season Stats

0.355093

Relative Brier Score

79

Forecasts

7

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 15 15 161 129 393
Comments 0 0 6 5 39
Questions Forecasted 15 15 51 43 128
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 15 11 34
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
olavo_sg made their 5th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
3% (0%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
5% (0%)
Su-35 fighter jets

Confirmed previous forecast. Russia will need the weapons in Ukraine. 

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New Prediction
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
olavo_sg made their 4th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
99% (+21%)
Yes
1% (-21%)
No

Increasing again due to (i) time decay and (ii) no signs that the previous protests will lead to his fall. 

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New Prediction

Lowering the odds: no signs of significant changes on the frontline + time decay. 

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New Prediction
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
olavo_sg made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
12% (-8%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
88% (+8%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025

It seems that the masses are currently more engaged against Israel's attacks than against the government. 

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New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
olavo_sg made their 4th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
100% (0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025

Confirmed previous forecast

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New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
olavo_sg made their 5th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025

Confirmed previous forecast. 

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New Prediction

Passage of time. 

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New Prediction
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
olavo_sg made their 7th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
100% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)

Confirmed previous forecast

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New Prediction
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
olavo_sg made their 6th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (0%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025

Confirmed previous forecast


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New Prediction

Confirmed previous forecast


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