14th
Accuracy Rank

probahilliby

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Forecasted Questions

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 07, 2024 11:40AM UTC
(8 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 1% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 99% 99%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 06, 2024 01:22PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 1%
No 96% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 06, 2024 01:23PM UTC
(5 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 6% 1%
No 94% 99%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 04, 2024 01:04PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 0%
No 96% 100%

Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 11, 2024 10:40PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 15% Oct 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2025 Jan 11, 2025 4%
No 85% Oct 11, 2024 to Apr 11, 2025 Jan 11, 2025 96%

What will be Germany’s net perception of Ukraine in the 2026 Munich Security Report?

Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 23, 2024 10:44AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Less than or equal to 9% 13% 1%
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive 30% 19%
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive 30% 72%
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive 18% 8%
More than or equal to 40% 9% 0%

Will at least five more exoplanets be found to be potentially habitable between 1 February 2024 and 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 11:24PM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 17% 9%
No 83% 91%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 01:03AM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 6% 8%
No 94% 92%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 01:05AM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 5%
No 98% 95%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 26, 2024 01:11AM UTC
(28 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 34% Oct 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2025 Jan 26, 2025 22%
No 66% Oct 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2025 Jan 26, 2025 78%
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