Routine update. Should be less likely given the table is now open for negotiations in the region.
0.131724
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
40
Forecasts
10
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 4 | 178 | 40 | 1219 |
| Comments | 0 | 4 | 57 | 48 | 128 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 120 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 25 | 10 | 125 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
Star Commenter - Mar 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(+2%)
Yes
Mar 19, 2025 to Sep 19, 2026
95%
(-2%)
No
Mar 19, 2025 to Sep 19, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(-2%)
Yes
Mar 19, 2025 to Sep 19, 2025
99%
(+2%)
No
Mar 19, 2025 to Sep 19, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Routine update.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-36%)
Yes
95%
(+36%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Routine update.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Apr 7, 2025 11:11AM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
10%
(-1%)
Yes
Mar 7, 2025 to Sep 7, 2025
90%
(+1%)
No
Mar 7, 2025 to Sep 7, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Routine forecast update.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
New Badge
Star Commenter - Feb 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(-8%)
Less than or equal to 59
12%
(-7%)
Between 60 and 69, inclusive
20%
(-2%)
Between 70 and 79, inclusive
38%
(+16%)
Between 80 and 89, inclusive
21%
(+1%)
More than or equal to 90
Why do you think you're right?
Adjusting more sharply based on election and current trend.
Basically, election didn't seem to cause a drastic rise as I had thought. Adopting linear extrapolation but wary of errors in assessment.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
N/A
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Looks like short-term ceasefires seem to be most achievable and that looks to be the trend with ceasefires lately. However, it's my perception that if one good deal is reached, we could actually seem prolonged "peace" in the form of a ceasefire; most of the fireworks have died down anyway.
Why might you be wrong?
N/A