Forecasted Questions
Will a Chinese organization produce DUV (ArFi) photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 140 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2026?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 11:15AM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 11:15AM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 30% | 31% | -1% | +5% |
| No | 70% | 69% | +1% | -5% |
Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(8 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 11:17AM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 11:17AM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 31% | 37% | -6% | +10% |
| No | 69% | 63% | +6% | -10% |
Will the Syrian Democratic Forces collapse, fragment, or lose control over key territories, specifically Manbij, Raqqa, or Deir ez-Zor, before 1 October 2026?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Oct 01, 2026 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 11:23AM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 11:23AM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 38% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 60% | 62% | -2% | +0% |
In the next 12 months, will a Large Language Model built by a Chinese organization rank in the top 3 overall on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 11:27AM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 11:27AM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 21% | Nov 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2025 | Dec 19, 2024 | 24% | -3% | +0% |
| No | 79% | Nov 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2025 | Dec 19, 2024 | 76% | +3% | +0% |
Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test within the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 11:29AM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 11:29AM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 14% | Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 | Dec 19, 2024 | 12% | +2% | -2% |
| No | 86% | Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025 | Dec 19, 2024 | 88% | -2% | +2% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 11:33AM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 11:33AM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 40% | 35% | +5% | -1% |
| No | 60% | 65% | -5% | +1% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 19, 2024 11:36AM UTC
(3 days ago)
Nov 19, 2024 11:36AM UTC
(3 days ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 37% | 34% | +3% | +2% |
| No | 63% | 66% | -3% | -2% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 21, 2024 07:29AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Nov 21, 2024 07:29AM UTC
(1 day ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 24% | Nov 21, 2024 to Nov 21, 2025 | Feb 21, 2025 | 12% | +12% | -2% |
| No | 76% | Nov 21, 2024 to Nov 21, 2025 | Feb 21, 2025 | 88% | -12% | +2% |