14th
Accuracy Rank

probahilliby

About:

Certified Superforecaster® at Good Judgment Inc.; Metaculus Pro forecaster; forecaster for the RAND Forecasting Institute; culinarian. Questions everything but not a cynic.

Show more
View All Badges »
Forecasted Questions
Open Closed Resolved

Will a Chinese organization produce EUV photolithography machines that are capable of high-volume manufacturing (at least 90 wafers per hour) before 1 January 2030?​

Forecast Count:
 1 Forecast
Question Ends:
 Dec 01, 2024 04:59AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 26, 2024 12:56AM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 21% 32%
No 79% 68%

On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 26, 2024 12:58AM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 29% 27%
No 71% 73%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
 8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(25 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 26, 2024 01:03AM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 6% 11%
No 94% 89%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 26, 2024 01:05AM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 2% 5%
No 98% 95%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 26, 2024 01:11AM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 34% Oct 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2025 Jan 26, 2025 22%
No 66% Oct 26, 2024 to Oct 26, 2025 Jan 26, 2025 78%

Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 11:21AM UTC
(5 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Togo 16% 25%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations 33% 35%

Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 02, 2024 09:20AM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 41% 39%
No 59% 61%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 02, 2024 07:31PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 24% 23%
No 76% 77%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(11 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 02, 2024 07:34PM UTC
(3 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 7% 5%
No 93% 95%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(5 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 10:26AM UTC
(1 day ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 27% 37%
No 73% 63%
Files
Tip: Mention someone by typing @username
Cancel