14th
Accuracy Rank

probahilliby

About:

Certified Superforecaster® at Good Judgment Inc.; Metaculus Pro forecaster; forecaster for the RAND Forecasting Institute; culinarian. Questions everything but not a cynic.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will Wagner Group or Africa Corps deploy to Togo or an additional African country before 1 January 2026?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 31, 2024 11:21AM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Togo 16% 24%
Any other African country with no previous Wagner or Africa Corps operations 33% 39%

Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 02, 2024 07:31PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 24% 21%
No 76% 79%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 02, 2024 07:34PM UTC
(20 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 7% 5%
No 93% 95%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 10:26AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 27% 36%
No 73% 64%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 10:28AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 1%
No 99% 99%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 19 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 10:29AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 1%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 0% 2%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?

Forecast Count:
 2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 10:33AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications 32% 32%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP 65% 65%
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP 3% 3%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 10:35AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 2%
No 100% 98%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 13 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 10:41AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 9% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 3% 6%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Nov 04, 2024 10:44AM UTC
(18 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 1% 3%
Kyiv 0% 1%
Odesa 1% 2%
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