Forecasted Questions
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 06, 2024 01:35PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jul 06, 2024 01:35PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | Jul 6, 2024 to Jul 6, 2025 | Oct 6, 2024 | 5% | +1% | +0% |
| No | 94% | Jul 6, 2024 to Jul 6, 2025 | Oct 6, 2024 | 95% | -1% | +0% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 06, 2024 01:36PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jul 06, 2024 01:36PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 5% | 2% | +3% | -1% |
| No | 95% | 98% | -3% | +1% |
Will the O-RAN Alliance’s specifications be integrated into 3GPP before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 06, 2024 01:40PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jul 06, 2024 01:40PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications | 55% | 39% | +16% | -15% |
| No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP | 36% | 56% | -20% | +16% |
| No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP | 9% | 5% | +4% | -1% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 06, 2024 01:41PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jul 06, 2024 01:41PM UTC
(3 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 6% | Jul 6, 2024 to Jan 6, 2025 | Oct 6, 2024 | 3% | +3% | -3% |
| No | 94% | Jul 6, 2024 to Jan 6, 2025 | Oct 6, 2024 | 97% | -3% | +3% |
Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 14, 2024 12:54PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 14, 2024 12:54PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kuwait | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
| Oman | 3% | 2% | +1% | +0% |
| Qatar | 2% | 1% | +1% | +0% |
| Saudi Arabia | 1% | 3% | -2% | -1% |
| Tunisia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 14, 2024 12:56PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 14, 2024 12:56PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 3% | 1% | +2% | +0% |
| No | 97% | 99% | -2% | +0% |
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 14, 2024 01:42PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 14, 2024 01:42PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 22% | 11% | +11% | -3% |
| No | 78% | 89% | -11% | +3% |
Will Huawei sell or announce plans to sell Open RAN equipment before 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 14, 2024 01:51PM UTC
(2 months ago)
Aug 14, 2024 01:51PM UTC
(2 months ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 35% | 25% | +10% | -4% |
| No | 65% | 75% | -10% | +4% |
Will another Chinese military base in an African country (excluding Djibouti) be under construction or established by 1 January 2027?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Jan 01, 2027 05:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 30, 2024 12:27AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Aug 30, 2024 12:27AM UTC
(1 month ago)
| Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 41% | -29% | -7% |
| No | 88% | 59% | +29% | +7% |