Forecasted Questions
Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jan 22, 2024 02:27PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Jan 22, 2024 02:27PM UTC
(8 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | 0% | +1% | -9% |
No | 99% | 100% | -1% | +9% |
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
7 Forecasts
7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 07, 2024 11:40AM UTC
(6 months ago)
Apr 07, 2024 11:40AM UTC
(6 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) | 0% | 0% | +0% | -1% |
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) | 1% | 1% | +0% | -3% |
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) | 99% | 99% | +0% | +4% |
Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Apr 11, 2024 11:33PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Apr 11, 2024 11:33PM UTC
(6 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 49% | 44% | +5% | -4% |
No | 51% | 56% | -5% | +4% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 06, 2024 01:17PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jul 06, 2024 01:17PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 68% | 21% | +47% | -30% |
No | 32% | 79% | -47% | +30% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 06, 2024 01:22PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jul 06, 2024 01:22PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 4% | 1% | +3% | -2% |
No | 96% | 99% | -3% | +2% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 06, 2024 01:23PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jul 06, 2024 01:23PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 6% | 1% | +5% | -2% |
No | 94% | 99% | -5% | +2% |
Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(12 months from now)
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(12 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 06, 2024 01:25PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jul 06, 2024 01:25PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 13% | 6% | +7% | -4% |
No | 87% | 94% | -7% | +4% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 06, 2024 01:27PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jul 06, 2024 01:27PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 7% | 5% | +2% | -3% |
No | 93% | 95% | -2% | +3% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts
2 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 06, 2024 01:28PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jul 06, 2024 01:28PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kharkiv | 11% | 4% | +7% | -11% |
Kyiv | 1% | 1% | +0% | -1% |
Odesa | 2% | 1% | +1% | -3% |
Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Jul 06, 2024 01:34PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Jul 06, 2024 01:34PM UTC
(3 months ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
S-400 or S-500 missile system | 3% | 9% | -6% | +3% |
Su-35 fighter jets | 4% | 7% | -3% | -2% |