14th
Accuracy Rank

probahilliby

About:
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0.151317

Relative Brier Score

0

Forecasts

0

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 

Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 13 26 251 170 1126
Comments 1 1 8 8 74
Questions Forecasted 12 22 69 48 106
Upvotes on Comments By This User 2 6 19 15 110
 Definitions
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Adam6180
made a comment:
Thank you for grabbing these. 
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New Prediction

Time update.

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New Prediction
probahilliby
made their 13th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
9% (+6%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
3% (-1%)
Su-35 fighter jets

Seems like missiles are more valued here than fighter jets. It's more consistent with the warfare Iran is choosing against Israel, Iran's primary target these days. I'm bumping up the odds for "S-400 or S-500 missile system" because of evidence of Russia's cooperation with countries like North Korea and its expansion into African countries. But in the next 3 months, though? That's kind of pushing it. Wouldn't be surprised to see Russia and Iran cooperation in the future. I would assume if Iran's leadership reshuffles in several years, political wills and momentum may change in a direction that may fuel such transactions.

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New Prediction
probahilliby
made their 6th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-5%)
Yes
100% (+5%)
No

Rounding down to zero given timing for later in 2025. More delay potential than an early surprise, in my opinion.

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New Prediction
probahilliby
made their 2nd forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
32% (-23%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
65% (+29%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
3% (-6%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP

Simply adjusting the majority of weight to the second bin to reflect the change in crowd opinion since my last forecast update. Still think there is potential for YES here so not going to rule this one out strongly yet. 2 years still ahead.

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New Prediction
probahilliby
made their 19th forecast (view all):
Probability
Answer
0% (-1%)
Kuwait
0% (-3%)
Oman
0% (-2%)
Qatar
0% (-1%)
Saudi Arabia
0% (-1%)
Tunisia

Pretty certain the Middle East escalations make this a fantasy at this point.

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New Prediction

Routine update.

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New Prediction

Routine update + passage of time.

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New Prediction

Routine update.

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New Prediction

Routine update.

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