Time update.
0.151317
Relative Brier Score
0
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 13 | 26 | 251 | 170 | 1126 |
Comments | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 74 |
Questions Forecasted | 12 | 22 | 69 | 48 | 106 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 6 | 19 | 15 | 110 |
Definitions |
Seems like missiles are more valued here than fighter jets. It's more consistent with the warfare Iran is choosing against Israel, Iran's primary target these days. I'm bumping up the odds for "S-400 or S-500 missile system" because of evidence of Russia's cooperation with countries like North Korea and its expansion into African countries. But in the next 3 months, though? That's kind of pushing it. Wouldn't be surprised to see Russia and Iran cooperation in the future. I would assume if Iran's leadership reshuffles in several years, political wills and momentum may change in a direction that may fuel such transactions.
Rounding down to zero given timing for later in 2025. More delay potential than an early surprise, in my opinion.
Simply adjusting the majority of weight to the second bin to reflect the change in crowd opinion since my last forecast update. Still think there is potential for YES here so not going to rule this one out strongly yet. 2 years still ahead.
Pretty certain the Middle East escalations make this a fantasy at this point.
Routine update.
Routine update + passage of time.
Routine update.
Routine update.
Bumping up based on these headlines:
China begins work on Kenyan geothermal power plant amid African renewable energy push
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3284769/china-begins-work-kenyan-geothermal-power-plant-amid-african-renewable-energy-push
China offers Africa $51 billion in fresh funding, promises a million jobs
https://www.reuters.com/world/china-deepen-industrial-agricultural-trade-investment-ties-with-africa-2024-09-05/
China Endorses ‘Small and Beautiful’ Projects in Africa Despite Challenges
https://chinaglobalsouth.com/analysis/china-endorses-small-and-beautiful-projects-in-africa-despite-challenges/