Routine update to match the latest status in competition.
1.368851
Relative Brier Score
1135
Forecasts
113
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 9 | 32 | 222 | 179 | 1135 |
| Comments | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 74 |
| Questions Forecasted | 8 | 24 | 66 | 50 | 108 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 113 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy,
Iran Nuclear Program,
Decoding Disinformation,
Mission: AI Advancement,
Iran-VNSAs
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
37%
(+8%)
Yes
63%
(-8%)
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
(-1%)
Yes
60%
(+1%)
No
Routine and very minor update. No progress or noise over the last few weeks, so probably decreasing a notch. However, the headlines I had previously shared are quite alarming - in the most neutral sense of the word I can use here.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
14%
(-9%)
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
86%
(+9%)
No
Nov 19, 2024 to May 19, 2025
Lowering because I think Trump's encounter with Kim softened the relationship between the US and North Korea (I had not factored that into account in my previous forecast), but I'm still cognizant of the fact that the last nuclear test happened in 2017, when Trump took office.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
21%
Yes
Nov 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2025
79%
No
Nov 19, 2024 to Nov 19, 2025
The competition is hot but predominantly not in China right now, as I see it. Also, with these competitions primarily funded in North America (assumption), chances are the top nuggets will come from non-Chinese entities for now.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
40%
Yes
60%
No
I just don't see the ingredients ripe for such an event to occur around the closing timeframe of this question right now, which warrants my forecast of probably not going to happen. However, there is lots of vulnerability and potential, so this doesn't feel like a certain YES or NO. Putting down a moderate 40% as a result. Have yet to see how the Trump Admin settles after confirmation hearings and see what the Cabinet members propose the US do in the Middle East. That should give us a better idea of where this is going to trend.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
31%
(+10%)
Yes
69%
(-10%)
No
Routine update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
30%
(+10%)
Yes
70%
(-10%)
No
Raising my forecast to a healthy lean on a NO, but arguments for China's will behind such an undertaking are increasingly convincing to me. I'm still not so sure how the Trump administration would affect the odds here, as I could see regulation or no regulation both equally having the possibility to further incentive growth with DUV.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
42%
(+16%)
Yes
Nov 17, 2024 to Nov 17, 2025
58%
(-16%)
No
Nov 17, 2024 to Nov 17, 2025
Temporary increase with rumors that a particular successor is in place and that he is in a coma and is expected to "cease" quite soon.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
41%
(+29%)
Yes
59%
(-29%)
No
Bumping up based on these headlines:
China begins work on Kenyan geothermal power plant amid African renewable energy push
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3284769/china-begins-work-kenyan-geothermal-power-plant-amid-african-renewable-energy-push
China offers Africa $51 billion in fresh funding, promises a million jobs
https://www.reuters.com/world/china-deepen-industrial-agricultural-trade-investment-ties-with-africa-2024-09-05/
China Endorses ‘Small and Beautiful’ Projects in Africa Despite Challenges
Files
Thank you for grabbing these.
Files
Routine update.