probahilliby

I started off with the assumption that Djibouti would have about a 60% probability of being the immediate choice of a Chinese base in Africa based on all inferences and incentives that would benefit both countries. I then distributed the remaining 40% across the next 5 years or so, and the resulting probability of this IFP resolving YES in the next two years was something like 12.5%. I'm rounding down because I'm probably overestimating here.

Food for thought: would increased activity with the Philippines cause us to increase or decrease the odds here? On one hand, it would seem aggression and expansion by China is increasing. On the other hand, more activity in the South China Sea could pull away Chinese resources in Africa, slowing progress. Assessing the tradeoffs between China's desire based on regional conflicts remains a complicated thing to do.

Although I think it's unlikely and there are no current plans to do so that we know of publicly, there are dynamics that could cause such a situation to unravel, and ample time to allow for this to happen. The bar seems low for this question. Therefore, I'm climbing a tad bit higher.

Crowd seems too low on this one. I plotted all the current positions of the top 15 or so market caps, then compared relative probabilities using standard and median absolute deviations, and alternative inputs to account for uncertainties / margins of error. The range is 9 to 32 percent. I'm putting down the moderate estimate of 22% to start. I will reassess the future positions later down the line. Thinking I should be higher since I'm only accounting for this snapshot in time. Lots of time left on the clock means more opportunity for growth for NVIDIA.

Affirming.

Reducing for passage of time, most notably Saudi Arabia. Just don't see it appropriate given the escalation in the region.

Aligning with DKC in her assessment, therefore riding down my perceived  overconfidence. I just don't think given the troubles Iran already faces that they will do something that would trigger such snapback sanctions.

@DKC, do you think there's room for a scenario in which Trump triggers something that causes this question to resolve YES in time? This is assuming he is re-elected US President.

I'm not quite confident that I know the particular circumstances and strings that are driving this question that well. With the escalations in the Middle East, particularly between Israel, Iran and Hezbollah, I think this could embolden Iran in achieving its objectives, which includes nuclear enrichment missions.

As a rough estimate, let's assume that this question would resolve on average in 2.9 years, With a standard deviation of another three years. A normal distribution, it would assume a 20% forecast for this question with the remaining time left. (EDIT: Glad to see no forecaster is above 20% here). But given that this is a skewed distribution, I think a 4% is more appropriate, which is aligned with my previous forecast which was derived subjectively. Therefore, I am affirming my forecast of 4% for now. I am particularly monitoring what's happening in the Middle East regarding Hezbollah and Iran.