Time update.
-0.54191
Relative Brier Score
170
Forecasts
15
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 13 | 26 | 251 | 170 | 1126 |
| Comments | 1 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 74 |
| Questions Forecasted | 12 | 22 | 69 | 48 | 106 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 6 | 19 | 15 | 110 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-10%)
Kharkiv
0%
(-1%)
Kyiv
1%
(-1%)
Odesa
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(+6%)
S-400 or S-500 missile system
3%
(-1%)
Su-35 fighter jets
Seems like missiles are more valued here than fighter jets. It's more consistent with the warfare Iran is choosing against Israel, Iran's primary target these days. I'm bumping up the odds for "S-400 or S-500 missile system" because of evidence of Russia's cooperation with countries like North Korea and its expansion into African countries. But in the next 3 months, though? That's kind of pushing it. Wouldn't be surprised to see Russia and Iran cooperation in the future. I would assume if Iran's leadership reshuffles in several years, political wills and momentum may change in a direction that may fuel such transactions.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-5%)
Yes
100%
(+5%)
No
Rounding down to zero given timing for later in 2025. More delay potential than an early surprise, in my opinion.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
32%
(-23%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
65%
(+29%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
3%
(-6%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Simply adjusting the majority of weight to the second bin to reflect the change in crowd opinion since my last forecast update. Still think there is potential for YES here so not going to rule this one out strongly yet. 2 years still ahead.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(-1%)
Kuwait
0%
(-3%)
Oman
0%
(-2%)
Qatar
0%
(-1%)
Saudi Arabia
0%
(-1%)
Tunisia
Pretty certain the Middle East escalations make this a fantasy at this point.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(-2%)
Yes
99%
(+2%)
No
Routine update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
27%
(-22%)
Yes
73%
(+22%)
No
Routine update + passage of time.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(-6%)
Yes
93%
(+6%)
No
Routine update.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
24%
(-11%)
Yes
76%
(+11%)
No
Routine update.
Files
Bumping up based on these headlines:
China begins work on Kenyan geothermal power plant amid African renewable energy push
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3284769/china-begins-work-kenyan-geothermal-power-plant-amid-african-renewable-energy-push
China offers Africa $51 billion in fresh funding, promises a million jobs
https://www.reuters.com/world/china-deepen-industrial-agricultural-trade-investment-ties-with-africa-2024-09-05/
China Endorses ‘Small and Beautiful’ Projects in Africa Despite Challenges
https://chinaglobalsouth.com/analysis/china-endorses-small-and-beautiful-projects-in-africa-despite-challenges/