Routine update to match the latest status in competition.
-0.54191
Relative Brier Score
179
Forecasts
18
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 9 | 32 | 222 | 179 | 1135 |
Comments | 0 | 1 | 8 | 8 | 74 |
Questions Forecasted | 8 | 24 | 66 | 50 | 108 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 2 | 5 | 18 | 18 | 113 |
Definitions |
Routine and very minor update. No progress or noise over the last few weeks, so probably decreasing a notch. However, the headlines I had previously shared are quite alarming - in the most neutral sense of the word I can use here.
Lowering because I think Trump's encounter with Kim softened the relationship between the US and North Korea (I had not factored that into account in my previous forecast), but I'm still cognizant of the fact that the last nuclear test happened in 2017, when Trump took office.
The competition is hot but predominantly not in China right now, as I see it. Also, with these competitions primarily funded in North America (assumption), chances are the top nuggets will come from non-Chinese entities for now.
I just don't see the ingredients ripe for such an event to occur around the closing timeframe of this question right now, which warrants my forecast of probably not going to happen. However, there is lots of vulnerability and potential, so this doesn't feel like a certain YES or NO. Putting down a moderate 40% as a result. Have yet to see how the Trump Admin settles after confirmation hearings and see what the Cabinet members propose the US do in the Middle East. That should give us a better idea of where this is going to trend.
Routine update.
Raising my forecast to a healthy lean on a NO, but arguments for China's will behind such an undertaking are increasingly convincing to me. I'm still not so sure how the Trump administration would affect the odds here, as I could see regulation or no regulation both equally having the possibility to further incentive growth with DUV.
Temporary increase with rumors that a particular successor is in place and that he is in a coma and is expected to "cease" quite soon.
Bumping up based on these headlines:
China begins work on Kenyan geothermal power plant amid African renewable energy push
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3284769/china-begins-work-kenyan-geothermal-power-plant-amid-african-renewable-energy-push
China offers Africa $51 billion in fresh funding, promises a million jobs
https://www.reuters.com/world/china-deepen-industrial-agricultural-trade-investment-ties-with-africa-2024-09-05/
China Endorses ‘Small and Beautiful’ Projects in Africa Despite Challenges
Routine update.