Forecasted Questions
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
May 03, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 11, 2024 09:30AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 11, 2024 09:30AM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 10% | 33% | -23% | +19% |
No | 90% | 67% | +23% | -19% |
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2024 01:07PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 19, 2024 01:07PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Oct 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025 | Nov 19, 2024 | 2% | -2% | -1% |
No | 100% | Oct 19, 2024 to Apr 19, 2025 | Nov 19, 2024 | 98% | +2% | +1% |
What percentage of global semiconductor revenue will come from the Americas region in 2024?
Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts
5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 19, 2024 03:23PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Oct 19, 2024 03:23PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Less than 24% | 0% | 0% | +0% | +0% |
More than or equal to 24% but less than 26% | 0% | 1% | -1% | +1% |
More than or equal to 26% but less than 28% | 5% | 4% | +1% | -4% |
More than or equal to 28% | 95% | 94% | +1% | +2% |
Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(7 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 25, 2024 09:55AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Oct 25, 2024 09:55AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 2% | -2% | +0% |
No | 100% | 98% | +2% | +0% |
By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 12:07PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 27, 2024 12:07PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 27, 2024 12:07PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Oct 27, 2024 12:07PM UTC
(22 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 | Jan 27, 2025 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts
3 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 03, 2024 07:48AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Nov 03, 2024 07:48AM UTC
(16 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts
4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 07, 2024 06:02PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Nov 07, 2024 06:02PM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Nov 7, 2024 to May 7, 2025 | Dec 7, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
No | 100% | Nov 7, 2024 to May 7, 2025 | Dec 7, 2024 | 100% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?
Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 04:45AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 10, 2024 04:45AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Kharkiv | 1% | 3% | -2% | -1% |
Kyiv | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
Odesa | 1% | 2% | -1% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
9 Forecasts
9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Nov 10, 2024 04:45AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Nov 10, 2024 04:45AM UTC
(9 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 99% | 97% | +2% | +0% |
No | 1% | 3% | -2% | +0% |