Confirmed previous forecast
-0.24999
Relative Brier Score
150
Forecasts
17
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 7 | 132 | 101 | 282 |
Comments | 0 | 1 | 15 | 13 | 60 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 6 | 29 | 20 | 50 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 | 34 |
Definitions |
New Badge
Top Forecaster - Oct 2024
Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
New Badge
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Yes
97%
(+1%)
No
Time
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0%
(-1%)
Yes
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
100%
(+1%)
No
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
Updating to 0% due to Israel not being the most popular among Arab countries lately.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(-12%)
Yes
75%
(+12%)
No
Updating downwards after racing has subsided
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
(-3%)
Yes
87%
(+3%)
No
Time and recent hostilities
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
37%
(+25%)
Yes
63%
(-25%)
No
Huge racing today
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
57%
(-18%)
Yes
Oct 2, 2024 to Oct 2, 2025
43%
(+18%)
No
Oct 2, 2024 to Oct 2, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Updating downwards after an initial strong reaction.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I might underestimate the cost-effectiveness of military intervention against Iran.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?