Confirmed previous forecast
-0.240347
Relative Brier Score
91
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 5 | 11 | 139 | 91 | 272 |
| Comments | 0 | 2 | 15 | 11 | 58 |
| Questions Forecasted | 5 | 8 | 29 | 18 | 48 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 8 | 7 | 34 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Estonia
1%
(0%)
Latvia
1%
(0%)
Lithuania
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
(+60%)
Yes
Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025
10%
(-60%)
No
Sep 26, 2024 to Mar 26, 2025
Netanyahu's recent words were "we continue to hit Hezbollah with all our might. This is the policy". If Israel official policy is that they'll keep striking Hezbollah in Lebanon, that sounds like a significant military step to me.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
90%
(+53%)
Yes
Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025
10%
(-53%)
No
Sep 26, 2024 to Sep 26, 2025
Netanyahu's recent words were "we continue to hit Hezbollah with all our might. This is the policy". If Israel official policy is that they'll keep striking Hezbollah in Lebanon, that sounds like a significant military step to me.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
4%
(0%)
Yes
96%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
99%
(0%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
Yes
Sep 22, 2024 to Sep 22, 2025
96%
No
Sep 22, 2024 to Sep 22, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
- Iran seems to prefer proxy warfare instead of direct conflict. The government appears risk-averse when it comes to direct conflict.
- Iranian nuclear weapons program is a strong deterrence.
- Trump had been quite provocative against Iran, see the Soleimani assassination. Harris seems to have an edge for winning the US presidency, making it less likely that US will further destabilize the region.
- Saudi Arabia is unlikely to escalate tensions without a very strong provocation or shift in status quo.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- If Israel invades Lebanon in the Hezbollah conflict, Iran might retaliate.
- If Trump wins the presidency, further provocations might destabilize the region and increase the likelihood of military violence. The relatively mild reaction Iran had had with regards to Soleimani assassination (compared to what many had imagined) seemed to have been at least partially based on the assumption that Trump would probably be out of the picture for good after the 2021 election.
- Iran-Pakistan relations are strained, which is worrying especially since both have nuclear weapons capabilities. Heightened tensions from early 2024 seem to have easened up, though.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
16%
(+2%)
Yes
84%
(-2%)
No
Immediate slight adjustement updwards based on the current consensus.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
14%
Yes
86%
No
Why do you think you're right?
- US government seems to have given hope on the ability of Hamas to agree on ceasefires in the immediate near future.
- The political value of being able claim recognition for the US political party in power means that the incentives for the US to push for ceasefire is not as high as it could be due to presidential election season.
- International co-operation for ceasefire in the Arab world countries that have influence over Hamas and the political realities surrounding them seems unlikely, both based on the current sentiment and some forecast data.
- The time-window for this question to resolve positively is very tight.
- Even with relatively high base-rates highlighted in the question description, the political realities are different enough that I would not have them influence the judgement to a too great degree. Hawkish sentiment between all parties in the area appears to have reached heights not seen in many years, including those highlighted in the description.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
- I might be severely underestimating the likelihood of inter-Arab co-operative lobby for ceasefire.
- I might underestimate the level of bias in my current media landscapes.
- A black swan event might turn things topsy-turvy.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
37%
(-13%)
Yes
Sep 10, 2024 to Sep 10, 2025
63%
(+13%)
No
Sep 10, 2024 to Sep 10, 2025
Updating towards consensus
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
30%
(-10%)
Yes
Sep 10, 2024 to Mar 10, 2025
70%
(+10%)
No
Sep 10, 2024 to Mar 10, 2025
Updating towards consensus
Files