8th
Accuracy Rank

sanyero

About:

Background in consulting, med tech, software. EA.

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2024 Season Stats

-0.677834

Relative Brier Score

101

Forecasts

7

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 7 132 101 282
Comments 0 1 15 13 60
Questions Forecasted 0 6 29 20 50
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 7 7 34
 Definitions
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sanyero earned a new badge:

Top Forecaster - Oct 2024

Earned for being in the Top 10% of the leaderboard in a month.
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sanyero earned a new badge:

Questions Forecasted

For forecasting on 50 questions!
New Prediction
Why do you think you're right?
  • ASML has virtual monopoly on EUV machines, and have had it for a while. Incentives for creating similar technology are extremely high, and doing so seems extremely difficult.
  • I don't expect EUV production capabilities to increase significantly beyond ASML ecosystem unless some very advanced AI system enables extremely significant levels of technological progress (and even then it is not obvious that whatever progress is made would be using EUV wafers instead of some other currently unknown optimal solution).
  • EUV litography machines are also dependant on multiple pieces of specialized technology, such as optics and mirrors produced by Carl Zeiss. Carl Zeiss is also close to a monopoly and is a virtual single point of failure for semiconductor manufacturing chains. Carl Zeiss is unlikely to end up cooperating with Chinese efforts.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
  • I might underestimate the possibility of AI-accelerated technological progress and whether or not EUV capabilities are a constraint that would be solved as a part of that progress.
  • Production of the tech that EUV machines need might not be as difficult to replicate as I think. Is Carl Zeiss a central actor in the space because they do something no-one else is able to do, or are they a central actor because they do niche stuff and just don't have much competition by coincidence?
Files
New Prediction
Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?
sanyero made their 6th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Estonia
1% (0%)
Latvia
1% (0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction

Time

Files
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
sanyero made their 11th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
0% (-1%)
Yes
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
100% (+1%)
No
Oct 25, 2024 to Apr 25, 2025
Updating to 0% due to Israel not being the most popular among Arab countries lately.
Files
New Prediction
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
sanyero made their 6th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
25% (-12%)
Yes
75% (+12%)
No

Updating downwards after racing has subsided

Files
New Prediction

Time and recent hostilities

Files
New Prediction
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
sanyero made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
37% (+25%)
Yes
63% (-25%)
No

Huge racing today

Files
New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
sanyero made their 3rd forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
57% (-18%)
Yes
Oct 2, 2024 to Oct 2, 2025
43% (+18%)
No
Oct 2, 2024 to Oct 2, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Updating downwards after an initial strong reaction.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

I might underestimate the cost-effectiveness of military intervention against Iran.

Files
Files
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