sanyero

• Huawei is on the US entity list, and is almost fully focused on the markets within China. There are little incentives for China to pivot to Western-led, non-proprietary solutions, especially when their current solutions can be integrated in intelligence-gathering operations more easily.
• Proprietary technology appears to ahead of O-RAN.
  

Updating slightly downwards and expanding on my previous forecast. Also expanded reasons I might be wrong with possible US actions.

• ASML has virtual monopoly on EUV machines, and have had it for a while. Incentives for creating similar technology are extremely high, and doing so seems extremely difficult.
• Even though EUV is difficult, China has made significant progress towards 7nm and 14-20nm process with their current equipment. 28nm process is already in use with SMEE. EUV is not strictly necessary, although having the tech would be beneficial.
• The drive towards frontier chip-making is the fact that older chips use a lot of energy, which makes energy a bottleneck in scaling up AI efforts. Even if older chips would use 4x more Watts per FLOPS it might be more feasible for China to just expand their grid much faster than what the US could hope to do, for cheaper than making progress in EUV would be.
  
• EUV litography machines are also dependant on multiple pieces of specialized technology, such as optics and mirrors produced by Carl Zeiss. Carl Zeiss is also close to a monopoly and is a virtual single point of failure for semiconductor manufacturing chains. Carl Zeiss is unlikely to end up cooperating with Chinese efforts.
  
• I don't expect EUV production capabilities to increase significantly beyond ASML ecosystem unless some very advanced AI system enables extremely significant levels of technological progress (and even then it is not obvious that whatever progress is made would be using EUV instead of some other currently unknown optimal solution).

Nvidia skyrocketing.

Time+Trump

Updating closer to consensus

• ASML has virtual monopoly on EUV machines, and have had it for a while. Incentives for creating similar technology are extremely high, and doing so seems extremely difficult.
• I don't expect EUV production capabilities to increase significantly beyond ASML ecosystem unless some very advanced AI system enables extremely significant levels of technological progress (and even then it is not obvious that whatever progress is made would be using EUV wafers instead of some other currently unknown optimal solution).
• EUV litography machines are also dependant on multiple pieces of specialized technology, such as optics and mirrors produced by Carl Zeiss. Carl Zeiss is also close to a monopoly and is a virtual single point of failure for semiconductor manufacturing chains. Carl Zeiss is unlikely to end up cooperating with Chinese efforts.