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42nd
Accuracy Rank

sebawi

Sebastian Witteler
About:

Interested in science, technology and innovation, the (global) common good, and futures thinking.

You may also find me @https://www.gjopen.com/ and @https://www.rangeforecasting.org/.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1,000 or more fatalities from conflict or political violence in Israel, Gaza, and the West Bank? -0.000754
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record at least 50 protests or riots or at least 10 protest- or riot-related fatalities in Saudi Arabia's Eastern Province? -0.000094
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 10,000 or more civilian fatalities in Ethiopia? -0.000116
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya? 0.002539
Jul 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jun 20, 2023 and Jul 20, 2023) -0.000113
Jul 02, 2023 04:00AM UTC How many “venture capital members” will be part of BioMADE at the end of June 2023? -0.003447
Jun 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between May 20, 2023 and Jun 20, 2023) -0.000148
May 23, 2023 03:04PM UTC Will China seize control of any Taiwanese-occupied feature in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) -0.001566
May 20, 2023 08:00PM UTC Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Apr 20, 2023 and May 20, 2023) 0.0
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023? -0.002604
Apr 20, 2023 06:16PM UTC What percentage of contributions to Github's “very high impact” AI projects will be from the EU in 2022? -0.022583
Apr 20, 2023 03:23PM UTC What percentage of contributions to Github's "very high impact" AI projects will be from China in 2022? -0.031301
Apr 20, 2023 03:20PM UTC How many European Union countries will have an AI skill migration greater than 2 per 10,000 in 2022? -0.013857
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon? -0.019308
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC How will the U.S. rank in AI skills penetration in 2022? -0.070538
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC Which country or union will have the second most citations of "high impact" AI scientific publications in 2022? 0.003133
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC How many AI scientific publications will be published by EU institutions in 2022? 0.081823
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC Which country will have published the second most "high impact" journal articles on artificial intelligence in 2022? -0.014153
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring in Georgia or Moldova before 1 April 2023? -0.01029
Apr 17, 2023 04:00AM UTC From 1 April 2022 to 1 April 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Russia? -0.001179
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