Confirmed previous forecast
-0.224143
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
Scored Questions
93
Forecasts
7
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 22 | 334 | 93 | 2761 |
| Comments | 0 | 13 | 80 | 57 | 1502 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 19 | 57 | 32 | 229 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 1 | 28 | 7 | 200 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Badge
New Badge
Star Commenter - Mar 2025
Earned for making 5+ comments in a month (rationales not included).
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2026
93%
(0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2026
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
41%
(0%)
Yes
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
59%
(0%)
No
Mar 31, 2025 to Sep 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
(0%)
Less than or equal to 9%
4%
(-3%)
Between 10% and 19%, inclusive
79%
(+2%)
Between 20% and 29%, inclusive
14%
(+1%)
Between 30% and 39%, inclusive
2%
(0%)
More than or equal to 40%
Why do you think you're right?
Updating considering the current status quo.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Germans may begin to see Ukraine more critical as soon as there are discussions on German troops in Ukraine.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
(0%)
Yes
75%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
35%
(+20%)
Yes
65%
(-20%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Reconsidering after thinking things through in conjunction with the other related questions.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
/
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
1%
1 January 2025 - 31 March 2025
15%
1 April 2025 - 30 June 2025
10%
1 July 2025 - 30 September 2025
9%
1 October 2025 - 31 December 2025
65%
Not before 2026
Why do you think you're right?
First forecast, only six days until first deadline. This does not seem feasible considering the negotiation environment.
Russia considers itself in an advantageous position, so there is no need for agreeing to a ceasefire before Ukraine provides concessions that make sure this remains the case. Ukraine on the other hand, does not want to give in to a ceasefire that will only allow Russia to bolster their military capabilities - but it might be forced by the US government and military conditions. Therefore, assuming a ceasefire will be agreed upon either sooner than later - or not before 2026.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I may overestimate Ukraine's ability to withstand US pressure to make radical concessions to Russia at this point in time.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Assuming an escalting threat situation.
Why might you be wrong?
Agreements with Russia may reduce Germans' threat perception at least for the time frame relevant to this question.