58th
Accuracy Rank

sebawi

Sebastian Witteler
About:

Interested in science, technology and innovation, the (global) common good, and futures thinking.

You may also find me @https://www.gjopen.com/ and @https://www.rangeforecasting.org/.

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Forecasted Questions
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Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 10:42PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 1%
No 100% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 99%

Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 10:43PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 0% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 1%
No 100% Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025 Nov 27, 2024 99%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(10 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 10:48PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 7% 5%
No 93% 95%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
 12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(9 days from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 11:04PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 1% 8%
No 99% 92%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 11:04PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 0% 1%
No 100% 99%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 11:07PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 9% Oct 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2025 Jan 27, 2025 13%
No 91% Oct 27, 2024 to Oct 27, 2025 Jan 27, 2025 87%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
 5 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 11:09PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 100% 97%
No 0% 3%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 15 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 11:10PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 0% 1%
Oman 0% 2%
Qatar 0% 1%
Saudi Arabia 0% 2%
Tunisia 0% 1%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 11:18PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Estonia 1% 2%
Latvia 1% 1%
Lithuania 1% 2%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Oct 27, 2024 11:18PM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kharkiv 1% 3%
Kyiv 0% 1%
Odesa 0% 2%
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