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Sebastian Witteler
About:

Interested in science, technology and innovation, the (global) common good, and futures thinking.

You may also find me @https://www.gjopen.com/ and @https://www.rangeforecasting.org/.

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Date Ended Question Relative Brier Score
Apr 05, 2023 07:15PM UTC Will North Korea conduct a nuclear test on or before 31 March 2023? -0.059659
Apr 05, 2023 07:14PM UTC Will Russia test or use a nuclear weapon in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 6, 2022 and Feb 1, 2023) -0.000382
Apr 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC Before 1 April 2023, will the government of the Republic of Srpska declare secession from Bosnia-Herzegovina (BiH), establish a timeline for secession, or schedule a referendum on secession? -0.001995
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Chinese security or paramilitary forces take possession of any island currently under control of Taiwan before 1 April 2023? -0.001156
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will any of the following countries announce on or before 31 March 2023 that they are joining the United States’ chip export ban against China? 0.144158
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin’s approval rating drop below 50% in the next month? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 3, 2023 and Mar 1, 2023) 0.0
Apr 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC Will events involving Russian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities occurring on or in the soil, airspace, or territorial waters of a NATO member state before 1 April 2023? -0.001064
Mar 22, 2023 04:00PM UTC How many Chinese Universities will be listed in QS World University Rankings’ top 100 universities for computer science in 2023? 0.026335
Mar 21, 2023 04:00PM UTC How much will On Running earn in net sales from shoes in Q4 2022? 0.164987
Mar 17, 2023 02:12PM UTC Will a European country announce that they are sending fighter jets to Ukraine by 30 April 2023? -0.489186
Mar 15, 2023 01:24PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Apr 2023 -0.014134
Mar 01, 2023 05:01AM UTC Will the Chinese military or other maritime security forces fire upon another country's civil or military vessel in the South China Sea in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 17, 2022 and Sep 1, 2022) -0.006282
Mar 01, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 March 2023? -0.010578
Feb 28, 2023 05:00PM UTC On 28 February 2023, how many states will be following the California emissions standard banning the sale of new emissions-producing vehicles by 2035? -0.039326
Feb 15, 2023 01:01PM UTC What will be the price of the Dutch TTF futures monthly contracts between March 2022 and February 2023? - Mar 2023 -0.007366
Feb 03, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will China launch more orbital rockets than the U.S. in January 2023? -0.001463
Feb 02, 2023 05:00AM UTC Will China execute an acknowledged national military attack against Vietnam, India, or Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 17, 2022 and Aug 17, 2022) -0.001573
Feb 01, 2023 06:46PM UTC Will the European Union’s economic sanctions on Russia expire or be revoked for whole sectors or industries by 31 January 2023? -0.000189
Jan 25, 2023 02:00PM UTC What percentage of ASML's lithography sales will be to the United States in 2022? 0.007954
Jan 18, 2023 05:00AM UTC How many integrated circuit (IC) units will China produce in 2022? -0.036482
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