It's too soon for something like this to happen.
0.944675
Relative Brier Score
6
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 6 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
Science & Technology,
INFER x Cosmic Bazaar Collaboration
Most Active Topics:
Decoding Disinformation
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
25%
Yes
75%
No
I do not believe this will happen so soon.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
85%
Yes
15%
No
This is very likely due to Meta's effort to disrupt large scale AI-powered disinformation campaigns.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
6%
Yes
94%
No
I do not believe this will be implemented in 2023 or that social media platforms will buy into this idea in the near future.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
100%
Less than 4 million
0%
More than or equal to 4 million but less than 6 million
0%
More than or equal to 6 million
This is still a new concept that not very many people know about.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
56%
Yes
44%
No
AI is already widely used across industries. Social media platforms are likely to announce labeling posts as potentially written by AI to increase transparency and reduce disinformation.
Files