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Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy
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Putin is unlikely to give up power. However, he might die. The death rate for a 71 year old Russian mail is 0.073 per year. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1005564/death-rate-russia-age-and-gender/. There are 50 days between now and May 1st, so the probability of dying in that window is 0.01 (1%). This would be a base-rate contributor. There may be other possibilities such as a coup, but they are low and are hard to estimate but non-zero, so I added another 1%, for a total of 2% chance he would cease to be president.