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telycorbett

Tom
About:

Biology grad interested in geopolitics. New to this so no criticising the brier score yet! Super interested in unique perspectives and the sources of information that support them.

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2024 Season Stats

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Relative Brier Score

71

Forecasts

5

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 5 18 71 71 71
Comments 1 1 28 28 28
Questions Forecasted 2 10 10 10 10
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 5 5 5
 Definitions
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
telycorbett made their 13th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100% (0%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
0% (0%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
telycorbett made their 17th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100% (+3%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025
0% (-3%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Mar 25, 2025

Rhetoric from IDF commanders.

Files
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
telycorbett made their 12th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
100% (+4%)
Yes
Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025
0% (-4%)
No
Sep 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2025
Why do you think you're right?

Seems almost certain due to recent rhetoric from IDF commanders.

Files
Why might you be wrong?

Things de-escalate on the Israeli side very quickly.

Files
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
telycorbett made their 16th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
97% (+5%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025
3% (-5%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Mar 24, 2025

Impending in my view. 1% higher than the 12 month forecast.

Files
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
telycorbett made their 11th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
96% (+4%)
Yes
Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025
4% (-4%)
No
Sep 24, 2024 to Sep 24, 2025

Impending in my view.

Files
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
telycorbett made their 15th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
92% (+17%)
Yes
Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025
8% (-17%)
No
Sep 23, 2024 to Mar 23, 2025

Current events.

Files
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 12 months?
telycorbett made their 10th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
92% (+26%)
Yes
Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025
8% (-26%)
No
Sep 23, 2024 to Sep 23, 2025

Current events.

Files
New Prediction
Will Israel declare war on Hezbollah in the next 6 months?
telycorbett made their 14th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
75% (+28%)
Yes
Sep 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2025
25% (-28%)
No
Sep 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2025

My assessment is that war is probable to highly probable at this stage, and probably due to Israeli initiation.

Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
telycorbett made their 4th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
1% (0%)
Yes
Sep 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2025
99% (0%)
No
Sep 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
telycorbett made their 6th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2% (0%)
Yes
Sep 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2025
98% (0%)
No
Sep 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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