Confirmed previous forecast
-0.377168
Relative Brier Score
86
Forecasts
5
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 11 | 86 | 86 | 86 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 30 | 30 | 30 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 9 | 12 | 12 | 12 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 5 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
2%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
98%
(0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
40%
(-48%)
Yes
Nov 15, 2024 to Nov 15, 2025
60%
(+48%)
No
Nov 15, 2024 to Nov 15, 2025
Calm after the storm
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(+1%)
Yes
97%
(-1%)
No
Upping slightly.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
98%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5%
(0%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
95%
(0%)
No
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4%
(+3%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
96%
(-3%)
No
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
Current events make this highly unlikely, but possible.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
(+1%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
97%
(-1%)
No
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
Saudi will not want to disturb the region further, even within the next 6 months from today.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
(+45%)
Yes
45%
(-45%)
No
Second place right now. Definitely possible.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
96%
(0%)
Yes
4%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files