telycorbett

Tom
About:

Biology grad interested in geopolitics. New to this so no criticising the brier score yet! Super interested in unique perspectives and the sources of information that support them.

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All Time Stats

-0.377168

Relative Brier Score

86

Forecasts

5

Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
 
Past Week Past Month Past Year This Season All Time
Forecasts 0 11 86 86 86
Comments 0 0 30 30 30
Questions Forecasted 0 9 12 12 12
Upvotes on Comments By This User 0 0 5 5 5
 Definitions

Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict, Iran: Threats & Influence, Artificial Intelligence, Science & Technology, Russia-Ukraine War

Most Active Topics:
Iran-VNSAs, Iran Nuclear Program

New Prediction
Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?
telycorbett made their 5th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
0% (0%)
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg
0% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)
2% (0%)
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)
98% (0%)
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)
Confirmed previous forecast
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New Badge
telycorbett earned a new badge:

Active Forecaster

New Prediction
Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?
telycorbett made their 2nd forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
40% (-48%)
Yes
Nov 15, 2024 to Nov 15, 2025
60% (+48%)
No
Nov 15, 2024 to Nov 15, 2025

Calm after the storm

Files
New Prediction

Upping slightly.

Files
New Prediction
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months?
telycorbett made their 6th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
5% (0%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
95% (0%)
No
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?
telycorbett made their 5th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
4% (+3%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
96% (-3%)
No
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025

Current events make this highly unlikely, but possible.

Files
New Prediction
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
telycorbett made their 7th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3% (+1%)
Yes
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
97% (-1%)
No
Oct 27, 2024 to Apr 27, 2025
Saudi will not want to disturb the region further, even within the next 6 months from today.
Files
New Prediction
On 31 May 2025, will Nvidia be the world’s most valuable company by market cap?
telycorbett made their 8th forecast (view all):
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Probability
Answer
55% (+45%)
Yes
45% (-45%)
No

Second place right now. Definitely possible.

Files
New Prediction
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
telycorbett made their 5th forecast (view all):
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
96% (0%)
Yes
4% (0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Files
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