Confirmed previous forecast
-0.000321
Relative Brier Score
4
Forecasts
1
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| Definitions | |||||
Most Active Topics:
International Diplomacy & Conflict,
Russia-Ukraine War
Most Active Topics:
Mission: Diplomacy
New Prediction
Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
2%
(0%)
Yes
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-50%)
Yes
95%
(+50%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
At the moment, it does not seem like the Junta will have sufficient control over the country to hold elections.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
The timeframe is sufficiently long to produce doubts on any forecast.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
55%
Yes
45%
No
Why do you think you're right?
The Junta has been put under intense pressure by recent offensives in the north. In addition, the Chinese government seems to have been quietly supporting the recent offensives, putting the key power in the region in conflict with the Junta.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
I find it plausible that if the anti-government continue to see success against the Tatmadaw, then the Junta government may not have sufficient control over the country to hold national elections. In addition, if the situation stabilizes sufficiently for the Tatmadaw, their leadership may feel that they are in a position to push off elections further.
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
Yes
Making my first forecast!
Files