RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Feb 02, 2024 10:00PM UTC	When will ExxonMobil next positively mention algae-based biofuels in its quarterly financial report?	0.010654
Jan 01, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will United Airlines announce that they are using sustainable aviation fuel produced by Cemvita Factory by 31 Dec 2023?	-0.026272
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	By 31 December 2023, will IBM Quantum Computing offer access to a quantum computing system with 1,000 or more qubits?	0.017475
Nov 18, 2023 05:00PM UTC	Will Google’s Quantum AI lab publish 20 or more publications in 2023?	0.05831
Sep 26, 2023 04:00PM UTC	Will the U.S. government file an antitrust lawsuit against Apple, Amazon, or Facebook between January 20, 2021 and January 19, 2025?	-0.046765
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	Will a top U.S. chemical or oil and gas company join the BOTTLE consortium as an industry partner by 31 August 2023?	-0.00408
Sep 01, 2023 04:00AM UTC	How many teams from the United States will compete in the 2023 iGEM Grand Jamboree?	-0.02108
Aug 28, 2023 05:09PM UTC	What percentage of O visas will go to Chinese nationals in FY 2022 (October 2021 through September 2022)?	-0.000445
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor chips in 2022?	0.023776
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment to China in 2022?	-0.026613
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will total U.S. trade volume with China (imports and exports of goods) be in 2022?	0.021837
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of U.S. exports of semiconductor chips to China in 2022?	-0.058028
Aug 28, 2023 05:08PM UTC	What will be the value, in dollars, of all Chinese imports of semiconductor manufacturing equipment in 2022?	-0.024425
Aug 21, 2023 09:00PM UTC	Will GenScript’s Industrial Synthetic Biology segment report an operating profit in the first half of 2023?	0.011137
Jul 02, 2023 04:00AM UTC	How many “venture capital members” will be part of BioMADE at the end of June 2023?	-0.010191
Jun 01, 2023 12:45AM UTC	On 31 May 2023, how many total tax incentives will be listed in the Alternative Fuels Data Center?	0.021545
Apr 21, 2023 04:49PM UTC	Will clashes between Chinese and Indian security forces result in 25 or more fatalities between 28 April 2022 and 1 April 2023?	-0.000401
Apr 20, 2023 03:52PM UTC	Will U.S. domestic labor demand for artificial intelligence skills equal or exceed 3.2% for December 2022?	-0.070384
Apr 18, 2023 04:06PM UTC	How many autonomous vehicle collisions will the California DMV record for January, February, and March 2023 combined?	-0.0324
Apr 17, 2023 04:00PM UTC	From April 2022 through March 2023, what will be the highest number of ACLED recorded protests/riots in a single calendar month in Lebanon?	-0.016642

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