Confirming previous forecast
No Scores Yet
Relative Brier Score
Questions Forecasted
89
Forecasts
2
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 3 | 31 | 367 | 89 | 1579 |
| Comments | 3 | 31 | 121 | 89 | 505 |
| Questions Forecasted | 3 | 20 | 51 | 21 | 227 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 1 | 1 | 9 | 2 | 81 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
7%
(0%)
Moldova
2%
(0%)
Armenia
4%
(0%)
Georgia
1%
(0%)
Kazakhstan
Why do you think you're right?
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Long time horizon, just about 2 years from now
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
(-1%)
Yes
97%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Coming down slightly below the crowd, still seems very unlikely to me
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Very long time horizon
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(-1%)
Yes
Apr 10, 2025 to Oct 10, 2025
98%
(+1%)
No
Apr 10, 2025 to Oct 10, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Updating with the crowd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Opacity of N Korean regime
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Very low probability it could still happen
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
(+2%)
Yes
Apr 10, 2025 to Apr 10, 2026
93%
(-2%)
No
Apr 10, 2025 to Apr 10, 2026
Why do you think you're right?
Coming down to the crowd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
More economic instability could make for more geopolitical instability
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
2%
(0%)
Yes
Apr 10, 2025 to Oct 10, 2025
98%
(0%)
No
Apr 10, 2025 to Oct 10, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Still a slight chance it could happen
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(-2%)
Yes
91%
(+2%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Coming down closer to the crowd
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Still lots of time to go
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
(0%)
Yes
100%
(0%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Could technically still happen in the next 3 months
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
5%
(-1%)
Yes
95%
(+1%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Passage of time and tariffs
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Lots of volatility in the market right now, so Nvidia could still conceivably get to #1 for a day
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Confirming previous forecast, just a few months to go
Why might you be wrong?
Something super unlikely happens, like assassination