Forecasted Questions
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 02:56AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Sep 06, 2024 02:56AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 10% | Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025 | Oct 6, 2024 | 6% | +4% | -2% |
No | 90% | Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025 | Oct 6, 2024 | 94% | -4% | +2% |
Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 06, 2024 03:06AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Sep 06, 2024 03:06AM UTC
(25 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025 | Dec 6, 2024 | 3% | +2% | -1% |
No | 95% | Sep 6, 2024 to Mar 6, 2025 | Dec 6, 2024 | 97% | -2% | +1% |
Will Israel and Saudi Arabia publicly acknowledge that they are resuming the normalization process in the next six months?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 04:15AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Sep 19, 2024 04:15AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 1% | Sep 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2025 | Oct 19, 2024 | 0% | +1% | +0% |
No | 99% | Sep 19, 2024 to Mar 19, 2025 | Oct 19, 2024 | 100% | -1% | +0% |
Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?
Forecast Count:
18 Forecasts
18 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 04:21AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Sep 19, 2024 04:21AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 25% | 22% | +3% | -10% |
No | 75% | 78% | -3% | +10% |
By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?
Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 04:22AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Sep 19, 2024 04:22AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 5% | 5% | +0% | -2% |
No | 95% | 95% | +0% | +2% |
Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 04:24AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Sep 19, 2024 04:24AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 6% | Sep 19, 2024 to Sep 19, 2025 | Dec 19, 2024 | 5% | +1% | +1% |
No | 94% | Sep 19, 2024 to Sep 19, 2025 | Dec 19, 2024 | 95% | -1% | -1% |
Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?
Forecast Count:
1 Forecast
1 Forecast
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 19, 2024 04:31AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Sep 19, 2024 04:31AM UTC
(12 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | 1% | -1% | +0% |
No | 100% | 99% | +1% | +0% |
Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?
Forecast Count:
16 Forecasts
16 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 20, 2024 07:41AM UTC
(11 days ago)
Sep 20, 2024 07:41AM UTC
(11 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Forecast Window | Forecast Expiration | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 0% | Sep 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2025 | Dec 20, 2024 | 0% | +0% | +0% |
Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?
Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 08:37PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Sep 22, 2024 08:37PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Moldova | 7% | 7% | +0% | -1% |
Armenia | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Georgia | 3% | 3% | +0% | +0% |
Kazakhstan | 1% | 1% | +0% | +0% |
Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?
Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts
8 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Sep 22, 2024 08:40PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Sep 22, 2024 08:40PM UTC
(8 days ago)
Answer | Your Forecast | Current Consensus | Difference from Consensus | Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast |
---|---|---|---|---|
Yes | 98% | 96% | +2% | +1% |
No | 2% | 4% | -2% | -1% |