RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Aug 02, 2024 05:29AM UTC	Will Iran be impacted by a cyberattack targeting critical infrastructure between 27 February 2024 and 1 March 2025?	0.015827
Jul 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will the price of the rare earth compound dysprosium oxide equal or exceed $1000 per kg before 1 July 2024?	-0.000007
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?	-0.000035
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC	From 1 June 2023 to 31 May 2024, how many protests and riots will ACLED record in Colombia?	-0.007351
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?	-0.032706
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	-0.228861
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	0.000785
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Dina Boluarte cease to be president of Peru through an irregular transition before 1 May 2024?	0.001219
Apr 24, 2024 01:10AM UTC	Will the U.S. Congress pass a military aid package supporting Ukraine worth at least $10 billion before 1 May 2024?	0.00175
Apr 19, 2024 02:19AM UTC	Will there be an attack on an Iranian nuclear- or missile-related facility in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Oct 11, 2023 and Apr 19, 2024)	-0.006559
Apr 02, 2024 03:00PM UTC	Will BP or Shell resume oil shipments through the Red Sea before 31 March 2024?	0.00049
Apr 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Will any TSMC fab in Taiwan be shut down for at least one day because of a non-scheduled emergency by 31 March 2024?	-0.000922
Mar 29, 2024 04:00AM UTC	What percentage of the UK’s consumption of transport fuels will come from biofuels in 2023?	-0.006778
Mar 22, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months? (Scores for forecasts between Dec 22, 2023 and Mar 22, 2024)	0.000024
Mar 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 20, 2024 and Mar 20, 2024)	0.0
Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?	-0.000925
Mar 02, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Feb 2, 2024 and Mar 2, 2024)	0.000331
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?	0.001486
Feb 20, 2024 08:00PM UTC	Will the People's Liberation Army invade, blockade, or attack the main island of Taiwan in the next six months? (Scores for forecasts between Jan 20, 2024 and Feb 20, 2024)	0.000026
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM UTC	Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?	-0.181101

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