Not likely that China can bridge the tech gap in this timeframe. Immersion ArF (ArFi) systems are highly complex, involving precise control of the water immersion technology and advanced optics. Developing these systems from scratch is going to be a significant challenge. They'll make significant progress on this, but probably won't be ready until after 2026.
1.699121
Relative Brier Score
106
Forecasts
16
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
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| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
Yes
85%
No
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
0%
Kuwait
0%
Oman
0%
Qatar
0%
Saudi Arabia
0%
Tunisia
Don't think any of these will by end of this year given the escalation of the war.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
2%
(-3%)
Yes
98%
(+3%)
No
This article from July 2024 confirms Microsoft is taking steps to relocate top Chinese talent outside of China. Seems like a logical first step before making any big announcement to close AI operations there, but I don't think that announcement will be ready this year.
https://restofworld.org/2024/microsoft-china-ai-engineer-relocation/
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 30, 2024 04:44PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
86%
(-11%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
14%
(+11%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
update
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 30, 2024 04:44PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
85%
(+42%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
15%
(-42%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Sep 30, 2025
update
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 30, 2024 04:43PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
97%
(+44%)
Yes
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
3%
(-44%)
No
Sep 30, 2024 to Mar 30, 2025
update
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
12%
(-49%)
Yes
88%
(+49%)
No
Why do you think you're right?
Lowering my forecast given the ceasefire impasse and Israel's bold attack on Beirut. Netanyahu said early in Sep 2024 that a deal is not even close in what seems like a direct rebuke of the Biden administration's efforts. Many opinions I'm reading now don't think this will happen during Biden's term in office: https://www.cnn.com/2024/09/05/middleeast/israel-netanyahu-hamas-agreement-intl/index.html
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Why might you be wrong?
As of 9/18/24, Politico is reporting that US administration officials are still pursuing other ideas to break the ceasefire impasse, so there is still a slight chance this may happen this year. https://www.politico.com/news/2024/09/18/us-officials-gaza-ceasefire-options-00179749
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New Prediction
This forecast expired on Oct 20, 2024 02:16PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
53%
Yes
Sep 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2025
47%
No
Sep 20, 2024 to Mar 20, 2025
Why do you think you're right?
Bumping up the forecast given Israel's strikes in Beirut. Striking Beirut seems to show that Israel is preparing for a broader war with Hezbollah as a retaliation is expected. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/lebanon-explosions-hezbollah-israel-09-20-24-intl-hnk/index.html
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Why might you be wrong?
External pressures may help to de-escalate tension, but it's looking like political motivations are converging in a way that make it likely Netanyahu and Iran proxies will drag out and even expand the war.
Files
Why do you think you're right?
There's some possibility given the current advancements by Chinese companies and the government's heavy focus on AI. However, some of the significant barriers for China include strong competition from existing non-Chinese leaders and U.S. export controls which continue to restrict China's access to the most advanced equipment.
Why might you be wrong?
U.S. export controls could actually increase China's drive towards self-resilience in AI, making them push harder towards this milestone.