confirming 10% - even woth irianian and saudi rapprochement in the air.
-0.060104
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Why do you think you're right?
lowering my forecast odds here. wth a trump win there is very little biden can do
Why might you be wrong?
who really knows anything?
Active Forecaster
looks like the hyperscalers are still buying NVIDOA chips hand over fist.
Star Commenter - Oct 2024
Why do you think you're right?
my gut is that the cap-ex build-out to ramp up "hyper-scalers" cloud computing centers will show signs of fatigue and slow down by then. the multi $100B spend on cloud infrastructure is unsustainable and unwise. Further, there isn't much revenue coming in for their cloud AI offerings (MSFT's co-pilot is slow to gain traction) and on-board AI via smaller LLMs are in the ascendency. As NVDIAs massive PE is built on continued growth, I see multiple contraction as their price comes back into orbit (though MSFT AMZN GOOG APPL are going to see a hit as well) and NVDIA should fall faster as AI is their main growth driver.
While there are some great use cases in companies/govt/industries out there - I'm still waiting for the "Killer-App" that will drive mass adoption of AI . IE something that justifies all the infrastructure spend.
Why might you be wrong?
who knows anything?
Why do you think you're right?
israel (bibi) has been harping on taking out irans nuke capabilities for years and now he has a really good reason to.
the US (and other partners) dont want to see israel attack oil infrastructure for fear of high oil prices in an election season.
there are plenty of Iranian government and military sites that are valid targets. but if the israelis are going to strike iran they really need to take out the nukes.
a key consideration is not hitting civilian infrastructure. we want to clear a space for the Iranian people to rise up - not piss them off or galvanize them to the regime.
Why might you be wrong?
objective uncertainty. there is more i don't know than what i know.
Why do you think you're right?
there have been so many highly suspicious accidents in nato countries since the war in ukraine that i think this is more than likely. (think gas trucks bursting into flames under major highway interchange overpasses in PA and CA - and other events in europe). in fact, this has probably happened already. putin sees sabotage (payback) as fair play given that ukraine has teams teams roaming around in russia looking to sow havoc. cyber is just a faster, easier, cheaper, safer and unattributable way to do it
the problem here is attribution. first, its all too easy for russian hackers to hide their tracks. and even if our experts are able to track down, the culprits (im always blown away when we can put faces on cyber criminals and indiict individuals) , its not at all certain that the affected govts/govt depts/companies will want to pin the blame on russians because of political reasons.
Why might you be wrong?
objective uncertainty. what the hell do i know?
Why do you think you're right?
iwith iran's continued support for terror groups who are actively engaging in combat the chances of war just keeps getting higher and higher. with israel publiclly stating they are going to strike back for the second salvo "significantly" puts us at the edge of the abyss.
Why might you be wrong?
objective uncertainty. who really knows anything?
im fairly sure this has already happened. vlad is getting his revenge on the west.