winkelby

based purely on social security actuarial tables for life expectancy, a 72 year old american has a 3% chance of death on any given year.  as a president, i would guess putin's health care is better than the average american.  even so, i will stick with 3% chance of death in this upcoming year. thats the base case. 

add to that political risk. while putin has a pretty firm grip on power - eliminating, jailing or exiling anyone who might oppose him - he is a  dictator and all does not always end well for dictators (especially hated ones) so im adding another 2% for political risk factor. 

boy did i get this one wrong. attack = successful attack here.

base case is one qualified attack every 2 years. 

they are at war already. this qustion should be closed.

this question should be closed whats going on qualifies as war as far as im concerned.

so msft just asked their china based AI group if they want to relocate. pretty good indication something is up. 1-in-4 odds they pull the plug on this group in china, anyway, but EOY

this is a great question because there are so many sub-texts to parse through.

first and foremost, will putin remain in power until 2027? given the social security actuarial tables - the base case for a 71 year old to make it to 2027 (in the USA, anyway) is ~93%. subtract about 5% for political risk (being deposed)  and he has a 87.5% chance of living that long. probably less if you figure in the hit teams targeting him (low chance of success but high value if successful - so worth the risk).  so i put a ~85% chance he is power until 2027. 

next, you have the look at the geography, ethnic make up and strategic resources of each of the target countries. which ones have the highest russian speakers? which ones does he have to plow through to "liberate" Kaliningrad Oblast? which ones have something he would actually want to risk a war with NATO and the EU over? which ones would be the easiest to conquer if left to their own devices?

per the CIA fact book: Estonia and Latvia are ~25% russian, Lithuania is 5%.

all three beefed up their militaries since Ukraine - introducing conscription, have large trained reserves, and are NATO armed. 

you have to go through Lithuania to get to Kaliningrad Oblast. (if i were putin, my war plan would be to plow through Lithuania - cutting off land routes to the other two and then mop them up.) 

Estonia is the largest supplier of rare earth materials to the USA (behind china).  that fact deserves note. 

IMO ultimately, a land grab - even if successful - would be futile. the citizenry of all three have lived under freedom most of their lives and are highly educated. subjugating them for any period of time will be extremely difficult.