winkelby

a little confusion on time period. 12 months from this day. 

using base case of SS actuarial table (~10% chance of death for an 85 year old male per year less allowance for only 4 months left for this question at this point) + chance of revolution or war where he gets ousted (2% , as i guesstimate average lifespan of a dictatorship is ~50 years and ~1% that he is taken out my an israeli attack) = 13% / year or about 5% from today though the closing of this question. 

im fairly sure this has already happened. vlad is getting his revenge on the west. 

confirming 10% - even woth irianian and saudi rapprochement in the air. 

lowering my forecast odds here.  wth a trump win there is very little biden can do 

looks like the hyperscalers are still buying NVIDOA chips hand over fist.

my gut is that the cap-ex build-out to ramp up "hyper-scalers" cloud computing centers will show signs of fatigue and slow down by then. the multi $100B spend on cloud infrastructure is unsustainable and unwise.  Further, there isn't much revenue coming in for their cloud AI offerings (MSFT's co-pilot is slow to gain traction) and on-board AI via smaller LLMs are in the ascendency.  As NVDIAs massive PE is built on continued growth, I see multiple contraction as their price comes back into orbit (though MSFT AMZN GOOG APPL are going to see a hit as well) and NVDIA should fall faster as AI is their main growth driver. 

While there are some great use cases in companies/govt/industries out there - I'm still waiting for the "Killer-App" that will drive mass adoption of AI . IE something that justifies all the infrastructure spend.