boy did i get this one wrong. attack = successful attack here.
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Active Forecaster
Why do you think you're right?
base case is one qualified attack every 2 years.
Why might you be wrong?
i have zero expertise in this area.
they are at war already. this qustion should be closed.
Active Forecaster
this question should be closed whats going on qualifies as war as far as im concerned.
Why do you think you're right?
so msft just asked their china based AI group if they want to relocate. pretty good indication something is up. 1-in-4 odds they pull the plug on this group in china, anyway, but EOY
Why might you be wrong?
a trade war can escalate faster, or slower, depending on lots of variables. MSFT is simply caught in the middle of this.
Why do you think you're right?
this is a great question because there are so many sub-texts to parse through.
first and foremost, will putin remain in power until 2027? given the social security actuarial tables - the base case for a 71 year old to make it to 2027 (in the USA, anyway) is ~93%. subtract about 5% for political risk (being deposed) and he has a 87.5% chance of living that long. probably less if you figure in the hit teams targeting him (low chance of success but high value if successful - so worth the risk). so i put a ~85% chance he is power until 2027.
next, you have the look at the geography, ethnic make up and strategic resources of each of the target countries. which ones have the highest russian speakers? which ones does he have to plow through to "liberate" Kaliningrad Oblast? which ones have something he would actually want to risk a war with NATO and the EU over? which ones would be the easiest to conquer if left to their own devices?
per the CIA fact book: Estonia and Latvia are ~25% russian, Lithuania is 5%.
all three beefed up their militaries since Ukraine - introducing conscription, have large trained reserves, and are NATO armed.
you have to go through Lithuania to get to Kaliningrad Oblast. (if i were putin, my war plan would be to plow through Lithuania - cutting off land routes to the other two and then mop them up.)
Estonia is the largest supplier of rare earth materials to the USA (behind china). that fact deserves note.
IMO ultimately, a land grab - even if successful - would be futile. the citizenry of all three have lived under freedom most of their lives and are highly educated. subjugating them for any period of time will be extremely difficult.
Why might you be wrong?
russia has their hands full fighting Ukraine. their military, economy, resources, moral, .. are being depleted.
2027 is inside putins's "seven year itch" window. Chechnya 1999, Georgia 2007, Ukraine 2017, Ukraine 2023. the trend would put this in ~2030.
even if you think you are peter the great's reincarnate, do you want to fight in three countries have cold maritime climates with low land, marshy terrain? if your target's national bird is the barn swallow (they eat their weight in mosquitoes every day) , largest natural resource is peat, or biggest infections disease risk is a tickborne virus - you have to ask why would i do this?
Why do you think you're right?
based purely on social security actuarial tables for life expectancy, a 72 year old american has a 3% chance of death on any given year. as a president, i would guess putin's health care is better than the average american. even so, i will stick with 3% chance of death in this upcoming year. thats the base case.
add to that political risk. while putin has a pretty firm grip on power - eliminating, jailing or exiling anyone who might oppose him - he is a dictator and all does not always end well for dictators (especially hated ones) so im adding another 2% for political risk factor.
Why might you be wrong?
objective uncertainty. who really knows anything?