a little confusion on time period. 12 months from this day.
1.709211
Relative Brier Score
88
Forecasts
9
Upvotes
Forecasting Calendar
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Why do you think you're right?
Why might you be wrong?
who knows anything? his death has been reported a number of times in the last few years.
im fairly sure this has already happened. vlad is getting his revenge on the west.
confirming 10% - even woth irianian and saudi rapprochement in the air.
Why do you think you're right?
lowering my forecast odds here. wth a trump win there is very little biden can do
Why might you be wrong?
who really knows anything?
Active Forecaster
looks like the hyperscalers are still buying NVIDOA chips hand over fist.
Star Commenter - Oct 2024
Why do you think you're right?
my gut is that the cap-ex build-out to ramp up "hyper-scalers" cloud computing centers will show signs of fatigue and slow down by then. the multi $100B spend on cloud infrastructure is unsustainable and unwise. Further, there isn't much revenue coming in for their cloud AI offerings (MSFT's co-pilot is slow to gain traction) and on-board AI via smaller LLMs are in the ascendency. As NVDIAs massive PE is built on continued growth, I see multiple contraction as their price comes back into orbit (though MSFT AMZN GOOG APPL are going to see a hit as well) and NVDIA should fall faster as AI is their main growth driver.
While there are some great use cases in companies/govt/industries out there - I'm still waiting for the "Killer-App" that will drive mass adoption of AI . IE something that justifies all the infrastructure spend.
Why might you be wrong?
who knows anything?
Why do you think you're right?
this closes in a week so lowering forecast 3% is generous but im still fairly sure this is going to happen sooner than later. how much more can hamas take? how much more can the Palestinians take?
Why might you be wrong?
who really knows anything.