Social movements in Iran are relatively mobilized, although of the new government. So I think the chances for this to happen are considerable.
2.139148
Relative Brier Score
254
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
| Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forecasts | 4 | 4 | 354 | 254 | 420 |
| Comments | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| Questions Forecasted | 4 | 4 | 74 | 55 | 78 |
| Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Definitions | |||||
New Prediction
In the next six months, will the Global Protest Tracker record an anti-government protest in Iran with 10,000 or more participants lasting at least a week?
Compare to me
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
35%
(+10%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
65%
(-10%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
16%
(0%)
Yes, 3GPP will adopt and integrate O-RAN Alliance specifications
30%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will continue to develop specifications independently of 3GPP
54%
(0%)
No, the O-RAN Alliance will stop developing specifications without being integrated into 3GPP
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
17%
(0%)
Yes
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
83%
(0%)
No
Sep 27, 2024 to Mar 27, 2025
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Badge
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
3%
Yes
97%
No
Considering the timeframe and the current context, it is highly unlikely Vladimir Putin will leave office before July 2025, which could only occur with a major invasion of Russia, something NATO is clearly avoiding.
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
62%
(0%)
Yes
38%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
10%
(0%)
Yes
90%
(0%)
No
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
9%
(0%)
Estonia
11%
(0%)
Latvia
21%
(0%)
Lithuania
Confirmed previous forecast
Files