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Forecasted Questions
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Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 28, 2024 08:54PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 30% Aug 28, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025 Nov 28, 2024 3%
No 70% Aug 28, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025 Nov 28, 2024 97%

Will Myanmar hold national elections before 1 July 2025?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jul 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(9 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 28, 2024 08:54PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 15% 2%
No 85% 99%

Will Iran be at war with another country in the next year?

Forecast Count:
 6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2026 05:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 28, 2024 08:55PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 30% Aug 28, 2024 to Aug 28, 2025 Nov 28, 2024 8%
No 70% Aug 28, 2024 to Aug 28, 2025 Nov 28, 2024 92%

Will a North American testing center (OTIC) issue an O-RAN Certificate between 1 April 2024 and 31 March 2025?

Forecast Count:
 4 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 28, 2024 08:55PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 50% 44%
No 50% 56%

By 31 December 2024, will Microsoft announce that its AI Research Lab in China is closing or being relocated?

Forecast Count:
 7 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Dec 30, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 28, 2024 08:55PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 17% 5%
No 83% 95%

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 28, 2024 08:55PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 5% 2%
Oman 5% 2%
Qatar 13% 1%
Saudi Arabia 15% 3%
Tunisia 4% 1%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 28, 2024 08:55PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 1%
No 96% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 28, 2024 08:55PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 21% 1%
No 79% 99%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
 11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 28, 2024 08:55PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 5% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 10% 7%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
 9 Forecasts
Question Ends:
 Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
 Aug 28, 2024 08:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 8% Aug 28, 2024 to Feb 28, 2025 Nov 28, 2024 0%
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