RAND Forecasting Initiative

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2024 08:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	18%	0%	+18%	+0%
No	82%	100%	-18%	+0%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2024 08:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	1%	+9%	-1%
No	90%	99%	-9%	+1%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2024 08:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg	0%	0%	+0%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg)	10%	0%	+10%	+0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg)	40%	1%	+39%	+0%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg)	50%	99%	-49%	+0%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(6 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2024 08:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Forecast Window	Forecast Expiration	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	26%	Aug 28, 2024 to Aug 28, 2025	Nov 28, 2024	5%	+21%	+1%
No	74%	Aug 28, 2024 to Aug 28, 2025	Nov 28, 2024	95%	-21%	-1%

Will Russia initiate a major ground offensive to attack the following Ukrainian cities before 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2024 08:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Kharkiv	19%	4%	+15%	-1%
Kyiv	6%	1%	+5%	+0%
Odesa	9%	1%	+8%	-2%

Will Russia invade Moldova, Armenia, Georgia, and/or Kazakhstan before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
4 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2024 08:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Moldova	16%	7%	+9%	-2%
Armenia	4%	1%	+3%	+0%
Georgia	15%	3%	+12%	-1%
Kazakhstan	4%	1%	+3%	+0%

Will there be an agreed-upon pause in the conflict between Israel and Hamas that starts before 1 December 2024 and lasts at least 30 days?

Forecast Count:
8 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Dec 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2024 08:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	36%	22%	+14%	-16%
No	64%	78%	-14%	+16%

Will Russia invade Estonia, Latvia, and/or Lithuania before 1 April 2027?

Forecast Count:
3 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2027 04:00AM UTC
(2 years from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2024 08:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Estonia	9%	2%	+7%	+1%
Latvia	11%	1%	+10%	+0%
Lithuania	21%	1%	+20%	+0%

Will a collaboration between Huawei and the O-RAN Alliance be announced before 1 October 2025?

Forecast Count:
5 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Oct 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(1 year from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2024 08:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	10%	6%	+4%	-4%
No	90%	94%	-4%	+4%

Will Nicolás Maduro be president of Venezuela on 11 January 2025?

Forecast Count:
2 Forecasts

Question Ends:
Jan 11, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(3 months from now)

Forecast Last Updated:
Aug 28, 2024 08:56PM UTC
(1 month ago)

Answer	Your Forecast	Current Consensus	Difference from Consensus	Change in Consensus Since Last Forecast
Yes	62%	96%	-34%	+2%
No	38%	4%	+34%	-2%

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