174th
Accuracy Rank

zaidan

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Forecasted Questions

Will any of the following countries recognize Israel’s statehood by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:08PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Kuwait 5% 1%
Oman 5% 2%
Qatar 13% 1%
Saudi Arabia 15% 2%
Tunisia 4% 1%

Will a JCPOA participant country begin the process of imposing “snapback” sanctions on Iran by 31 December 2024?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:08PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 4% 1%
No 96% 99%

By 31 December 2024, will uranium enriched to 90% or more be discovered in an Iranian facility, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:08PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 21% 1%
No 79% 99%

Will Russia deliver the below weapons systems to Iran before 1 February 2025?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Feb 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(2 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:08PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
S-400 or S-500 missile system 5% 9%
Su-35 fighter jets 10% 6%

Will Iran agree to limit uranium enrichment to 5% or less in the next 6 months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:08PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 8% Oct 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025 Jan 24, 2025 0%

Will the Houthi movement and Yemen reach a ceasefire that is in effect on 31 December 2024 and lasts at least six months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:09PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 18% 0%
No 82% 100%

Before 1 January 2025, will Iran announce that it will leave the JCPOA ("Iran nuclear deal")?

Forecast Count:
12 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:09PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes 10% 1%
No 90% 99%

Will Iran eliminate its stockpile of uranium enriched up to 60% by 31 December 2024, according to the IAEA?

Forecast Count:
11 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:09PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Current Consensus
Yes, the stockpile will be reduced by 100% to 0 kg 0% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by 50% or more (>0 kg - 61.8 kg) 10% 0%
No, the stockpile will be reduced by less than 50% (>61.8 kg - 123.6 kg) 40% 1%
No, the stockpile will increase (>123.6 kg) 50% 99%

Will Iran launch missiles or conduct an airstrike against U.S. forces in the next six months?

Forecast Count:
10 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Jan 01, 2025 05:00AM UTC
(1 month from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:09PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 25% Oct 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025 Nov 24, 2024 1%
No 75% Oct 24, 2024 to Apr 24, 2025 Nov 24, 2024 99%

Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader in the next year?

Forecast Count:
6 Forecasts
Question Ends:
Apr 01, 2025 04:00AM UTC
(4 months from now)
Forecast Last Updated:
Oct 24, 2024 03:09PM UTC
(29 days ago)
Answer Your Forecast Forecast Window Forecast Expiration Current Consensus
Yes 26% Oct 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2025 Jan 24, 2025 12%
No 74% Oct 24, 2024 to Oct 24, 2025 Jan 24, 2025 88%
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