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Relative Brier Score
5
Forecasts
1
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New Prediction
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
(0%)
Yes
87%
(0%)
No
Files
New Prediction
This forecast expired on Nov 20, 2023 02:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Oct 20, 2023 to Nov 20, 2023
A month seems too soon for either side to agree to back down given the magnitude of the attacks thus far..
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
13%
Yes
87%
No
Why do you think you're right?
It seems more beneficial for them to stay in the JCPOA. Based on this blog post and other forecasts.
Files
Why might you be wrong?
Files
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
77%
Yes
It seems there will be some form of an election based on news articles.
Files
Base on other forecast rationales and articles these large protests seem to ebb and flow every few years, chances seem low at this point.