jessielee

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jessielee
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Apr 25, 2024 08:52PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
7%
Yes
Mar 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2024
93%
No
Mar 25, 2024 to Sep 25, 2024

Base on other forecast rationales and articles these large protests seem to ebb and flow every few years, chances seem low at this point.

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Confirmed previous forecast
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New Prediction
jessielee
made their 1st forecast (view all):
This forecast expired on Nov 20, 2023 02:49PM
Probability
Answer
Forecast Window
3%
Yes
Oct 20, 2023 to Nov 20, 2023

A month seems too soon for either side to agree to back down given the magnitude of the attacks thus far..

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Why do you think you're right?

It seems more beneficial for them to stay in the JCPOA. Based on this blog post and other forecasts.

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jessielee
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jessielee
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