Confirmed previous forecast
-0.42412
Relative Brier Score
23
Forecasts
0
Upvotes
Forecasting Activity
Forecasting Calendar
No forecasts in the past 3 months
Past Week | Past Month | Past Year | This Season | All Time | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Forecasts | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 52 |
Comments | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 41 |
Questions Forecasted | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 19 |
Upvotes on Comments By This User | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
Definitions |
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
In collaboration with the UK Professional Head of Intelligence Assessment
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
20%
(0%)
Less than 20%
30%
(0%)
More than or equal to 20% but less than 24%
50%
(0%)
More than or equal to 24%
Files
New Badge
Active Forecaster
New Prediction
Probability
Answer
15%
(0%)
Yes
Confirmed previous forecast
Files
Why do you think you're right?
Will likely equalize in the middle.
Why might you be wrong?
Might not equalize.