RAND Forecasting Initiative

Date Ended	Question	Relative Brier Score
Jun 28, 2024 04:00PM UTC	Will 100 or more people be killed or injured in a Russian attack on the city of Kyiv before 1 June 2024?	-0.000345
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Will the New York Times, CBC, or BBC announce that they will only publish photos or videos containing digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) by 31 May 2024?	0.025005
Jun 01, 2024 04:00AM UTC	Before 1 June 2024, will Facebook, WhatsApp, Messenger, or Twitter announce that they are labeling posts as potentially written by AI?	-0.11605
May 01, 2024 04:01AM UTC	Will Vladimir Putin cease to be the president of the Russian Federation before 1 May 2024?	-0.006002
Mar 03, 2024 05:00PM UTC	Will Imran Khan be re-elected as prime minister following Pakistan’s upcoming general election?	0.003122
Mar 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Ali Khamenei flee Iran or cease to be Supreme Leader before 1 March 2024?	-0.002616
Feb 15, 2024 11:30AM UTC	Will any of Meta's 2023 threat disruption reports indicate that a large language model may have been used to conduct an influence operation?	-0.161474
Feb 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will the Center for Strategic and International Studies record a “significant cyber incident” involving quantum computing in 2023?	0.00055
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will the Lebanese parliament elect a president by 31 December 2023?	-0.055301
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will OpenAI release a fifth generation of its generative pre-trained transformer model (GPT-5) to the general public in 2023?	-0.000372
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will YouTube, Facebook, Instagram, or Twitter enable digital provenance (e.g., C2PA) on photos or videos in 2023?	-0.021228
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Israel and Sudan sign an agreement normalizing diplomatic relations by 31 December 2023?	0.000493
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will Myanmar hold national elections on or before 31 December 2023?	-0.022941
Jan 01, 2024 05:00AM UTC	Will any listed Muslim-majority country sign an agreement establishing or normalizing diplomatic relations with Israel by 31 December 2023?	0.00334
Dec 30, 2023 02:16PM UTC	What percentage of Ukrainian territory will be held by Russia in December 2023?	0.008386
Nov 01, 2023 04:01AM UTC	Will a country ban or take regulatory actions that ultimately block access to OpenAI's models, between 1 June 2023 and 31 October 2023, inclusive?	-0.052749
Sep 12, 2023 09:00PM UTC	Will a new song with AI-generated vocals be streamed over 10 million times on Spotify before 1 June 2024?	-0.002189
Sep 01, 2023 09:00PM UTC	How many people will have signed up for World ID on 1 September 2023?	0.01108
Aug 20, 2023 05:25PM UTC	Will Russia successfully launch a moon mission on or before 1 Sep 2023?	-0.009436
Aug 14, 2023 04:00AM UTC	From 1 August 2022 to 31 July 2023, will ACLED record 1000 or more fatalities from conflicts or political violence in Kenya?	0.002624

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